24/07/2022
NEWS STORY
Let's be honest, the only way the Weather Gods are going to play a part in the outcome of today's race is if they play about with the thermostat.
Indeed, such are the temperature in France - and much of southern Europe - at present the only time we are likely to witness anything other than slicks is when glitches appear, such as the timing screen informing us that Zhou was on full wets at one point in FP3.
No, make no mistake, today is going to be a scorcher. And therein lies where the Weather Gods really could play a part.
What we are anticipating today is a race of intrigue, a race where both Red Bull and Ferrari are going to have to be on their very best form.
Though Red Bull missed out on pole, Max Verstappen is convinced that the RB18 has the advantage in terms of straight-line speed, courtesy of Ferrari's move towards a high wing set-up that speed over a single lap.
However, while this might give the Maranello outfit the overall advantage, it is thought that this will ultimately lead to higher tyre deg.
"Although Ferrari is quicker through the high-speed (corners), the tyres will be so hot that you can't push as much in the high-speed and therefore hopefully our top speed will help us out more," opined Verstappen yesterday.
"It's always a trade," added Christian Horner. "What we don't know is are they going to be taking more energy from the tyre over a lap? Will that penalise them over a long run? Will they be able to maintain it? What's the best way to achieve the lap time?
"What it's all going to be about is how will the front tyres survive around here through these long turns, 11-12 and the first sector?"
Indeed.
Another problem, certainly as far as Leclerc is concerned, is that he is up against two Red Bull while teammate Sainz is starting from the back of the grid after taking on a new power unit.
Consequently, a strong start is absolutely vital for the Monegasque.
Behind these three we have the prospect of another intriguing battle, this time involving the Mercedes pair, Norris and Alonso. Indeed such is the mouth-watering prospect of this little skirmish that the TV director is going to be spoiled for choice.
Earlier this week, Damon Hill predicted that Hamilton - who makes his 300th start today - will win, the 1999 world champion going so far as to suggest a Mercedes 1-2.
His battle with Russell, Alonso and Norris aside, with all due respect, the only way that is going to happen today is if Leclerc and Verstappen do something silly, and even then we would need Perez to run into problems also.
The midfield fights should be as good as ever, but other than a couple of fired-up Frenchman who start out of position in front of their home fans, we also have the thrilling prospect of Sainz seeking to work his way back through the field. Indeed, having set a strong pace all weekend, Magnussen will be eager to echo the Spaniard's progress.
In addition to the concern over tyre deg, another factor to look out for today is track limits. For much of the weekend the stewards have kept a fairly low profile, but come qualifying and there they were... with Schumacher among those paying the price for running wide.
The hot conditions point towards a two-stopper, although a one-stopper isn't out of the question. Starting on the medium gives most options, as this could be followed by two stints on the hard, or a central stint on the hard followed by a final stint on the medium again. It will all come down to degradation rates, which of course vary from car to car.
The other factor deciding the strategy will obviously be the individual compounds that each driver has left in his race allocation.
A one-stopper might not be impossible but it is harder to achieve with more management required. In which case, it would be medium to hard - or alternatively, hard to medium with a long first stint. But, in all honesty, would anyone really try this?
The pitlane opens and the drivers begin to head out.
"Front brakes a little bit toastie but sure it's okay," reports Russell.
Air temperature is 31 degrees C, while the track temperature is 60 degrees. Seemingly, according to race control, there is 0% chance of rain.
All are starting on mediums bar Bottas, Gasly and Sainz who are on hards, the leading ten all on brand new mediums. Bottas, starting eleventh, is the highest placed hard runner.
They head off on the formation lap. All get away.
As Leclerc makes his way to the grid, Verstappen is clearly in no hurry, the Dutchman almost backing up into his Red Bull teammate.
The grid forms.
They're away! A great start from Leclerc, who pulls ahead of Verstappen, while Hamilton is past Perez and pressuring the Dutchman on the run to Turn 1. As they go through Turn 1, it's Leclerc, Verstappen Hamilton and Perez, with Russell, Norris and Alonso three abreast behind.
Russell, who is on the outside, gets ahead, but a charging Alonso comes back at him out of Turn 2 to claim fifth and immediately begins applying pressure to Perez.
As struggles, the McLarens almost trip up over one another in their efforts to pass the Mercedes.
At the Turn 9 chicane Tsunoda spins following a clash with Ocon, the Frenchman rides the kerb and hits the AlphaTauri.
At the end of lap 1, it's: Leclerc, Verstappen, Hamilton, Perez, Alonso, Russell, Norris, Ricciardo, Ocon and Stroll. Sainz is up to 18th... but Magnussen is 13th!!!
At the end of lap 3, Leclerc enjoys a 1s lead over Verstappen, with Hamilton a further 2.5s behind.
Verstappen closes on Leclerc, the Red Bull clearly quicker on the straights.
Further back, Sainz has passed Gasly for 15th while Magnussen is up to 12th.
Ocon, currently 9th receives a 5s time penalty for causing that collision with Tsunoda, who is currently last.
As Verstappen closes on Leclerc, Perez harries Hamilton. However, lap 5 sees Perez have his time deleted for exceeding the track limits at Turn 3.
Verstappen is all over the Ferrari through Turn 11, and while he is unable to pass the end result seems inevitable.
Next time around, despite the tow from the Ferrari on the Mistral, Verstappen is unable to make anything stick as Leclerc has the advantage in Turn 11.
Having passed Albon, Sainz closes to within 0.124s of Magnussen. Indeed, on lap 7 the Spaniard passes the Dane for 12th.
Russell has passed Alonso for 5th as Magnussen is the first driver to pit. The Finn switches to hards.
Perez is losing ground to Hamilton (2.3s) and falling into the clutches of the second Mercedes.
Meanwhile, Schumacher and Zhou both pit on lap 9, as Verstappen has his time deleted for running wide in Turn 6.
In ninth, Ricciardo leads a DRS train that includes Stroll, Vettel and Sainz.
"We are thinking Plan B, let me know your opinion," Leclerc is asked. "Yeh," he responds.
Tsunoda pits at the end of lap 11.
Check out our Sunday gallery from Le Castellet here.
"It's time to close the gap to Perez," Russell is told.
After 12 laps, Leclerc is 0.8s ahead of Verstappen, as the Monegasque appears to have weathered the storm.
Sainz passes Stroll with ease to move into the points. Next up for the Spaniard is Ricciardo.
Lap 15 and Verstappen is now 1.5s down on the race leader, while Perez is 3s down on Hamilton.
Now Sainz is told that Plan B is the preferred option.
At the end of lap 16, Verstappen pits as Red Bull goes for the undercut. He rejoins in seventh, having switched to hards.
"Hard tyres two-tenths slower than expected and still suffering from overheating," Leclerc is advised.
Meanwhile, as Ferrari appears to be pondering a one-stopper, certainly for Leclerc, Verstappen passes Norris for 6th.
"You need to push," Verstappen is told... just as Leclerc goes off and into the barrier at Turn 11.
The safety car is deployed as Hamilton, Perez, Russell all pit. Alonso stops also, as does Norris, Ocon, Sainz, Ricciardo and a whole host of others.
In a very, very pitlane, Albon almost collects the other Ferrari, as replay shows that Leclerc simply lost the back end of the Ferrari.
"Are you OK?" Leclerc is asked. The breathless youngster says he had a throttle issue, before letting out a cry of total anguish.
At the end of lap 19, Vettel and Latifi, who didn't pit previously, both stop for fresh rubber.
Verstappen, now leading, asks if Leclerc is okay. Hamilton is second, ahead of Perez, Russell, Alonso, Norris, Ricciardo, Sainz, Ocon and Stroll.
At the end of lap 20, the race resumes, all are on hards bar Sainz and Gasly who are on mediums.
Sainz makes short work of Norris, to claim 6th.
Tsunoda appears to have retired as a result of that first lap clash with Ocon.
Sainz passes Alonso as the Spaniard is now Ferrari's only hope of salvaging something from what appears to be another failure.
Zhou pits at the end of lap 22, following what appeared to be a clash with Schumacher at Turn 11 that sent the German spinning.
What were we saying about Ferrari... Sainz gets a 5s time penalty for an unsafe release... that which almost ended in a collision with Albon.
As Hamilton shadows Verstappen, the Briton just 2.9s behind, could Damon Hill's prediction prove correct?
As Perez gains on Hamilton, Sainz closes on Russell.
Told he has a "5s stop and go penalty", Sainz quickly corrects his engineer, "it's not stop and go", replies the Spaniard.
Zhou is given a 5s time penalty for causing the collision with Schumacher.
Unhappy with his engine braking, Gasly warns: "I can't do anything in fifth gear!"
Told that Norris is gaining, that wily old fox Fernando replies: "Okay, I want them very close to me to kill their tyres."
Lap 29 sees a new fastest lap from Verstappen (37.695) as he maintains 3.6s lead over Hamilton.
On successive laps Norris has his lap time deleted.
In a bold, bold move, Perez goes around the outside of Russell in Turn 10 to claim fourth.
A mistake in Turn 2 sees Hamilton drop 5.7s behind Verstappen and into the clutches of Perez who is just 1.4s behind. The excursion won't have done his tyres any favours either.
"Sainz will likely try to get to the end, if he stops, he doesn't feature in our race," Russell is advised.
"Our focus is on doing the long game," Norris is told.
As Ocon closes on Ricciardo, Alonso maintains a 2.98s advantage over the second McLaren.
"We're comfortably in tenth," Stroll is told. "Yes, yes, leave me alone," comes the response. And when you Daddy owns the team it really is best to take his advice.
As Gasly passes Magnussen for 13th -much to the delight of his Mother, Hamilton asks if anyone else is suffering deg. "Yes," he is told, "we're seeing it on a couple of cars, could be wind."
Bottas pits at the end of lap 37, rejoining in 17th on mediums.
Latifi goes off after clashing with Magnussen at Turn 2. On the pit-wall, Jost Capito looks suitably unimpressed.
"We are considering Plan A, have a think and let me know," Sainz is told. As Latifi and Magnussen pit, Sainz replies: "If we do it, we do it soon."
"We cannot pass," says Sainz as he is unable to make a move on Perez. "OK, Plan B," comes the reply.
The Spaniard, hearing that those ahead will probably go the distance, wants to pit, but he is told to stay out.
He subsequently makes a move on Perez for a couple of corners they are side by side, and just as Sainz gets ahead he is told to pit. Unbelievable.
Moments later, Russell makes a move on Perez in Turn 8 and they touch. The Mexican cuts the chicane and emerges ahead of the Mercedes. "He has to give the place back," shouts the Briton. "He pushed me off," says Perez.
At the end of lap 42, Sainz pits, the Spaniard serving his penalty at the same time. Latifi also stops. Sainz rejoins in 9th, but is soon up to 8th having passed Ocon.
Russell is very, very unhappy with that incident, meanwhile Sainz passes Ricciardo for seventh.
"George keep your head down," says Toto Wolff, "you can hunt him down."
Lap 44 sees Sainz post a new fastest lap (36.242), as he closes to within a second of Norris.
The stewards say no further investigation of the Perez/Russell incident is necessary.
Sainz passes Norris with ease, and sets about closing the 3.4s gap to countryman Alonso.
Meanwhile, Leclerc admits that his crash was down to a mistake.
"I've been saying... I've been performing at the highest level of my career but if I keep making these mistakes... We were the strongest car today, if we lose the championship by 32 points I know where they are coming from. It's unacceptable."
Meanwhile, no mistakes from Sainz as he passes Alonso for 5th, however, Russell, who is 21s up the road is an impossible dream.
Indeed, Russell is fully occupied with hunting down Perez, the Briton all over the back of the Red Bull.
As Zhou stops by the side of the track at Turn 7, the yellows are waved. That makes 5 retirements so far this afternoon.
The VSC is deployed.
Check out our Sunday gallery from Le Castellet here.
We are on lap 50 of 53.
Verstappen leads Hamilton, who is followed by Perez, Russell, Sainz, Alonso, Norris, Ocon, Ricciardo and Stroll.
No sooner has the VSC period ended than Russell catches Perez seemingly asleep at the wheel. The Briton drops back, lulling the Red Bull driver into a sense of false security before absolutely flooring it to claim third.
Cue wild scenes in the Mercedes garage.
A mistake allows Perez to come back at Russell and as they begin the final lap the Mexican is all over the Briton.
Verstappen takes the flag, ahead of Hamilton as Perez runs out of time and has to settle for fourth.
The drama isn't over however, for Vettel is battling his Aston Martin teammate for 10th. They touch in the final corner, but the Canadian holds on to the position.
"I'm a bit knackered now," admits Russell, "it was a long race, a hard race. I was glad to see the chequered flag.
"Bringing home P3, two podiums for Mercedes, it's great," he grins.
"This is the biggest crowd I think we've had here, merci beaucoup," adds Hamilton. "That was a tough race, my drinks bottle didn't work.
"Reliability is one thing my team has been amazing at so I need to thank them."
Asked about his hopes for next week, he replies: "Budapest, it's going to be hard to beat the Ferraris and Red Bulls, they still have a pace advantage. You can see in the race, we can at least lean on them a little bit, so hopefully it's closer."
"I think we had really good pace from the start," says Verstappen, "but following around here with the heat, I could only go for a move once.
"We tried to stay calm, stay close. You never know how the race is going to go, but the car was quick today.
"I hope Charles is okay. I was just looking after the tyres until the end."
A strange, strange day, be it Leclerc's self-confessed mistake or Ferrari's strategy in terms of his teammate. Surely, we weren't the only ones screaming at our monitors as the Spaniard was told to pit at the very moment he had passed Perez.
With Hungary just a week away, there is very little time, nonetheless certain people have a lot of thinking to do.
Leclerc, along with Ferrari, is throwing away points, gifting the titles to Red Bull, and despite the poles it is a fact that - as yet - there are no points on Saturday.
Mercedes is like a rollercoaster, up one week and down the next, indeed, up and down almost from session to session. However, despite the concerns yesterday, today showed that they are within touching distance of their rivals.
Another great performance from Alonso, his comment about McLaren killing their tyres clear proof that the Spaniard remains a genuine threat.
Maybe not what Norris had been hoping for, but a double points finish for McLaren and indeed Alpine as Ocon managed to grab a couple on his home race.
Not the thriller we'd been hoping for, not even much of the intrigue we'd been promised, instead a race which appears to ease Verstappen towards his second title.
Check out our Sunday gallery from Le Castellet here.