23/10/2021
NEWS STORY
Ahead of today's qualifying session the air temperature is 30 degrees C, while the track temperature is 38 degrees. Despite being bright and sunny, race control claims there is a 40% chance of rain. Wow!
It's fair to say that heading into the session it is almost impossible to make any predictions.
While Mercedes totally dominated FP1, it clearly lost ground in FP2, and this morning, following overnight work in the Red Bull simulator by Sebastien Buemi, the Austrian team appeared to have the edge.
To further muddy the waters, the clampdown on track limits meant that Hamilton and Verstappen had their best times deleted and while this meant that Perez topped the timesheets this shouldn't take anything away from the Mexican who has looked good all weekend.
Like yesterday, the afternoon heat it likely to cause problems with the tyres, while traffic and those pesky track limits will surely add to the fun.
Then, of course, there is the question of engine reliability, with all eyes on Mercedes where Bottas takes a 5-place hit after taking on his sixth ICE of the season.
Also taking penalties are Vettel, Russell and Alonso who had a complete engine change overnight.
Other than Mercedes and Red Bull, Ferrari is looking good, as is McLaren, while Gasly looks set for another Q3 appearance.
The Alfas seem settled here, but then so do both Williams drivers.
It is likely that Mercedes and Red Bull will look to get to Q3 on mediums, but it is also likely that tomorrow's race is going to be a two-stoppers such are the issues with the increased temperatures this year.
In the moments before the start of Q1 it is revealed that the rear wings on both Red Bulls have been changes after cracks were discovered, thought to have been inflicted by the track's notorious bumps.
The lights go green and Stroll leads Schumacher and Mazepin out, followed by Leclerc.
"Why did we go out so early," asks Stroll, who probably hasn't heard about the possibility of rain.
"All eight races at COTA have been won from the front row," Pirelli helpfully reminds us as Verstappen, Perez and the Mercedes pair head out.
Both Haas drivers are in the 1:37s, while Stroll posts a far more sensible 35.983.
That said, Mazepin has his time deleted, the Russian having a pretty dire weekend.
Verstappen posts 34.521 and Perez 34.575 as the Mercedes pair crank up for their first flying laps.
Bottas goes quickest in S2, but traffic in the first and final sectors mean he can only manage a 34.659, while teammate Hamilton posts a 34.797.
Leclerc goes fifth, ahead of Vettel, Giovinazzi and Stroll, however a 34.407 sees Ricciardo go quickest.
A 34.551 from Norris makes it a McLaren 1-3.
"Come on, what... I mean seriously," shout Vettel as he encounters a very slow Haas on the racing line. Take a guess.
Mazepin, Stroll and Raikkonen have their times deleted as Sainz goes fourth with a 34.558.
No purples but Verstappen improves to 34.352 to retake the top spot.
Meanwhile, Mazepin could be under investigation for the Vettel incident.
Perez goes second with a 34.369.
With less than 4 minutes remaining, Alonso, Latifi, Schumacher, Raikkonen and Mazepin comprise the drop zone, the latter two yet to post 'legal' times.
While the Bulls have sensibly settled for their times, as have Sainz and the McLarens, the Mercedes pair are amongst those coming out for another go.
Bottas posts a PB in S1, as does Hamilton. However, Leclerc goes quickest in the opening sector.
The yellows are briefly waved after Giovinazzi spins as the Mercedes pair back off and abort their laps.
Raikkonen can only manage 18th, while Leclerc goes quickest with a 34.153.
A late charge sees Ocon go 13th, while Vettel goes 10th and Tsunoda 11th.
Gasly goes 7th, which means Stroll falls at the first hurdle.
Quickest is Leclerc, ahead of Verstappen, Perez, Ricciardo, Norris, Sainz, Gasly, Hamilton, Bottas and Vettel.
We lose Stroll, Latifi, Raikkonen, Schumacher and Mazepin.
While there will be no further action over Mazepin's issue with Vettel, another issue involving the Russian, this time with Stroll, has been noted.
The Mercedes pair are first out for Q2 and as expected they are sporting mediums, as is Verstappen and Leclerc, as Red Bull and Ferrari split their strategies. Indeed a number of teams have their drivers on different compounds.
Bottas posts 33.959 but is instantly deposed by his teammate who posts a 33.797.
However, Verstappen responds with a 33.464, while Perez posts 34.074.
At which point not only does the Mexican have his time deleted but the timing screen reveals that he is on mediums like his teammate.
Norris goes third (33.880), ahead of Leclerc, Bottas, Sainz, Gasly and Ocon. Sainz being the highest placed driver on softs.
With 7 minutes remaining, Perez has yet to post a legal time, as has Ricciardo, while Russell, Vettel and Giovinazzi have yet to appear. Then again, Vettel and Russell both have grid penalties.
Perez heads out for another go as the final assault gets underway. He is followed by Russell and Ricciardo.
Though he is third, Norris also heads out as do Sainz and Gasly.
PBs in the first two sectors are followed by a weak S3, which sees Perez cross the line at 34.178 to go 7th.
Not the most impressive of openings to a lap from Ricciardo, the Australian crossing the line at 34.643 to go ninth.
Alonso can only manage 13th, while Tsunoda goes tenth.
Vettel goes twelfth and Russell 13th, which means Ricciardo survives by the skin of his teeth, unlike Ocon as both Alpines go out.
Quickest is Verstappen, ahead of Hamilton, Norris, Leclerc, Bottas, Sainz, Perez, Gasly, Ricciardo and Tsunoda.
We lose Ocon, Vettel, Giovinazzi, Alonso and Russell.
Check out our Saturday gallery from COTA, here.
So, as we head into Q3, who is it going to be?
Of the leading ten, all bar the AlphaTauri pair got through on mediums.
Hamilton leads the way as the lights go green for Q3, the Briton followed by his teammate. As more drivers head out the Red Bull duo remain stoically in their garages.
Hamilton is advised that the wind has picked up.
The world champion crosses the line at 33.564, while Bottas responds with a 33.475.
Norris goes third (34.015) and Gasly fourth, but all eyes are on Verstappen who stops the clock at 33.199.
As the crowd cheers you'd think we were at Zandvoort, but there's an even louder cheer when Perez posts 33.180.
Sainz goes fifth (33.826), ahead of Leclerc, Ricciardo, Norris, Gasly and Tsunoda.
With 4:10 remaining, Hamilton heads out for his final run, once again followed by his trusty teammate. Out on track the Briton slows to allow Bottas through, no doubt looking for a tow on their flying laps.
"If any rain arrives it will be at Turn 1 first," Norris is advised. "We think it will be Class 1 or Class 2."
Again, the Bulls are last out.
Neither of the Mercedes drivers is particularly impressive in the opening sector.
However, Hamilton goes quickest in S2.
Bottas remains third, while Hamilton crosses the line at 33.119 to take provisional pole.
However, Verstappen is on a very quick lap.
Leclerc goes fifth, but all eyes are on Verstappen who stops the clock at 32.910.
Perez can only manage 33.134 this time around, which puts him third.
So, we have the championship protagonists on the front row, ahead of Perez, Bottas, Leclerc, Sainz, Ricciardo, Norris, Gasly and Tsunoda.
Ocon is eleventh, ahead of Vettel, Giovinazzi, Alonso, Russell, Stroll, Latifi, Raikkonen, Schumacher and Mazepin, though don't forget those penalties.
"Sorry guys," says Hamilton, as Verstappen says it was starting to spit rain at the end of his lap.
So, when Hamilton said yesterday that Mercedes had lost ground to Red Bull he wasn't joking, while all that overnight work back at Milton Keynes has certainly paid off.
While the hyperbole for much of the weekend thus far has been totally over the top, one has to admit that the prospect of these two guys starting side by side on the run up the hill to Turn 1 is positively mouth-watering.
Add in the fact that Verstappen (for once) has the support of his teammate, while Hamilton has nobody riding shotgun and we really do have a thriller on our hands.
To complete the fun the remainder of the leading ten is like Noah's Ark, with the Ferraris, McLarens and AlphaTauri side-by-side.
"We were really close, on that final lap," says Perez. "Unfortunately it wasn't as good throughout the lap.
"The rain hit me too hard in the final sector, I lost a bit of grip," he adds. "Tomorrow is a very long race, there will be a lot of degradation on these tyres. I'm looking forward to it!"
"I gave it everything today," says Hamilton. "A bit of a struggle through qualifying, since FP1 we fell backwards a bit.
"I was happy with my Q3 lap, it was everything I had. My mind-set tomorrow is to win this race."
"It was quite exciting out there," says pole-man Verstappen. "My Q3 my first lap wasn't amazing. In the final lap, I started slipping, there was a bit of drizzle, I wasn't sure I could hold on to my lap time.
"P1 and P3 for the team is a strong result. We'll work together as a team to get the best possible result."
We can't wait.