02/05/2021
NEWS STORY
Regular readers will be aware they we do our very best to avoid hyperbole whenever possible, however, we really could be in for an entertaining race today.
Sadly, the race is likely going to be a one-stopper, and we all know that last year Esteban Ocon completed 53 of the 66 laps on one set of mediums.
We can't count on the weather Gods, for the skies are likely to remain blue with just the odd cloud, and nary the slightest hint of rain.
However, if qualifying was anything to go by, we could yet be in for a roller coaster afternoon.
In all honesty we've lost count of the number of times that have been deleted over the last couple of days, the most important occasion being in Q3 when Max Verstappen had his pole-winning lap declared illegal.
Even without the clampdown on track limits drivers have struggled to remain on the black stuff, most citing Pirelli's choice of the hardest compounds in its range, the lack of downforce due to the 2021 aero regs and a track surface that is akin to a skating rink.
The drivers' headache however is our entertainment, and consequently the conditions that have already thrown up a few surprises this weekend look set to throw up a few more.
While Valtteri Bottas starts from pole, based on the previous two races we simply don't have faith in the Finn being a key player. We could be wrong of course, but he really doesn't seem to be 'on it' this season.
As was the case in the previous two races, we expect this afternoon to be about Max and Lewis, hopefully with the support of their respective wing men.
The problem for all of them however is keeping it on the black stuff and pointing in the right direction, for the sort of errors we witnessed in practice and qualifying will be costly this afternoon.
The old adage goes that 'to finish first, first you have to finish', and never has that saying been more applicable.
While there is talk of "going for it", "sending it" and - God strewth - "maximum attack", the key this afternoon is to keep one's head down and do the best job possible.
Due to a combination of factors, not least the reduction in pre-season testing, a number of drivers are having problems settling in at their new homes., the exception being Carlos Sainz, who is already beginning to apply pressure to Charles Leclerc.
The Spaniard starts fifth today, and with the Ferrari currently looking to be best of the rest, has the opportunity for a good points haul. Teammate Leclerc was rightly disappointed with his own qualifying performance, but should also be able to add to the Maranello outfit's tally.
A great performance from Esteban Ocon comes at a time Aline appears to have taken a step forward, though it's hard to judge because the French car might be better suited to the Portimao conditions than its rivals.
Very much an 'elbows out' racer it is going to be interesting to see how the Frenchman deals with a start where he finds himself behind Perez and Sainz, and just ahead of Norris, Leclerc and Gasly.
Teammate Alonso starts from 13th, but the Spaniard's vast experience could yet result in a points finish.
No doubt about it, McLaren has struggled this weekend, and while we have grown accustomed to seeing Lando Norris start from 7th, we share Daniel Ricciardo's shock in seeing the Australian's name down in 16th.
That said, the hard-charging Aussie's efforts to work his way into the points this afternoon should be worth the price of admission alone.
Hard to believe, but 9th is Pierre Gasly's worst qualifying performance of the year, however, are we alone in thinking that this could finally be his opportunity to shine.
Starting behind the Frenchman is Sebastian Vettel, who, despite not having any of the upgrades that have been made available to his teammate this weekend, put the Aston Martin on tenth. Whether this is the point the German finally turns his fortunes around or not remains to be seen, but surely all of us would like to see a little of the old Seb magic.
Another superb performance sees George Russell start from 11th, and surely nobody would begrudge the Briton a points finish this afternoon. Ignoring how he gets that kind of performance out of the Williams, the big question is how he motivates himself race after race.
Antonio Giovinazzi is the quicker of the two Alfas, but think back six months to that blinding opening lap from Kimi, the 2007 world champion working his way up from 16th to 6th.
Behind Giovinazzi, Alonso, Tsunoda and Ricciardo will all be looking to improve, each considering themselves to be out of position. However, the Japanese youngster, who has lost some of his shine since Bahrain, would be well advised to heed our earlier warning in terms of keeping his head down and staying out of trouble.
Whatever else this afternoon may throw at us, the focus still remains on that knife-edge title fight, and with that, other than the challenge of the track conditions, comes the question of strategy and teamwork, both title contenders having had little practical assistance from their teammate so far this season.
The race is likely to be a one-stopper, for two key reasons: firstly because the time lost in the pit lane is too costly to make a two-stopper work, and secondly because wear and degradation on all the compounds seems quite low.
With the Portimao circuit being reasonably wide and presenting plenty of overtaking opportunities (as proved by last year's race when there were 58 on-track passes) the tyre nomination should allow the drivers to push hard and deliver a lively race.
The low wear and degradation should also create quite a wide pit stop window, meaning that the teams will be able to adapt their strategies to take advantage of the best possible moment to make their stops, ensuring track position.
As usual, the timing of the stops will also depend on track and air temperatures - which are likely to be similar to today, or perhaps slightly warmer.
Of the leading ten, The Mercedes and Red Bull duos will start on mediums, as will Leclerc.
The pitlane opens and the drivers begin to head out.
As the grid assembles, Russell can be seen in discussion with Toto Wolff. Elsewhere, Adrian Newey is studying the front of the McLaren.
And now Toto is talking to race director, Michael Masi.
Ahead of the warm-up lap, the air temperature is 19.5 degrees C, while the track temperature is 39.3 degrees.
Perez is advised that the wind is "notably lower than yesterday". Bottas complains of loose padding next to his right ankle.
Other than Bottas, Hamilton, Verstappen, Perez and Leclerc, Russell, Giovinazzi, Alonso, Tsunoda, Ricciardo, Latifi, Schumacher and Mazepin all start on mediums. The rest, including Raikkonen and Stroll are on softs.
They head off on the warm-up lap. All get away.
The grid forms.
They're away. Bottas leads his teammate into T1, and while Verstappen looks at the outside the world champion has it covered.
Behind, Perez is struggling and loses a place to Sainz. While Ocon, having lost out to Norris at the start, is back up to 6th. However, Norris retakes the place with a brave move just a couple of corners later.
At the end of lap 1, it's: Bottas, Hamilton, Verstappen, Sainz, Perez, Norris, Ocon, Leclerc, Gasly and Vettel. Ricciardo is up to 13th.
Check out our Sunday gallery from Portimao, here.
However, barely have the leaders crossed the line than the safety car is deployed after an incident involving Raikkonen who has lost his front wing. Indeed, replays show the Finn caught the left-rear of his teammate as they battled on the pit straight for 12th.
The field continues behind the safety car as Raikkonen's stricken Alfa is cleared from the track. Lap after lap the field is led through the pitlane.
"Rear brakes are very hot," Bottas is warned.
Hamilton is advised that there might still be some debris on the track, on the left-hand side, on the racing line. Which is odd, when you consider we've been behind the safety car for 6 laps now.
The safety car withdraws, Hamilton is right up the back of Bottas.
The Finn lets loose, and while he holds the lead into T1, Verstappen gets through on the outside of Hamilton. Further back, Norris passes Perez and Sainz passes Ocon.
Ricciardo is up to 11th, while Russell is down to 14th.
Leclerc passes Ocon for 7th, as Hamilton is all over the rear of Verstappen. Indeed, the Briton posts a fastest lap (23.033).
At the end of lap 10, Verstappen has a rear-end wobble in T14 and that's enough to allow Hamilton to close in. The Briton subsequently nails the Red Bull heading into T1 to retake second.
3.3s behind Verstappen, Norris is fourth, ahead of Perez, Sainz, Leclerc, Ocon, Gasly and Vettel.
Verstappen complains that he doesn't have enough power on the straight.
As he closes to within 0.756 of Bottas, Hamilton enjoys a 1.4s lead over Verstappen.
In tenth, Vettel is under pressure from Ricciardo, as Tsunoda is warned about track limits, as he was at Imola.
Now running in his teammate's dirty air, Hamilton is struggling to keep up.
Perez has passed Norris in T1, the Mexican having previously complained that the Briton had previously passed him illegally. "Nice move," the Red Bull driver is told.
Down in 12th, Giovinazzi has Alonso all over his rear end.
As Norris slips to 2.2s behind Perez, it appears his softs are going off.
At the start of lap 18, Ricciardo sweeps past Vettel as they head into T1 to claim 10th. While the Australian has made up 6 places, Russell has lost 5.
At the start of lap 20, Hamilton makes a late move around the outside of his teammate as they head into T1, the Briton leaving the Finn for dead.
Now Verstappen closes on the Finn.
"Tyres are pretty shot," warns Hamilton.
At the end of lap 21, Sainz is the first driver to make a scheduled stop, switching from the softs to the mediums. He rejoins in 15th. Tsunoda also pits.
Next time around Norris pits, as do Ocon, Vettel and Giovinazzi. Norris rejoins in 10th, just ahead of Sainz, and Ocon 14th.
The big question now is who will blink first, Mercedes or Red Bull.
Gasly pits at the end of lap 24, as Verstappen goes quickest in S1. Latifi also pits.
"You've got the pace here," Verstappen is told.
Leclerc pits at the end of lap 25, the first of the medium runners to pit. As he rejoins in 10th, on hards, Red Bull and Mercedes will be watching his times with a keen eye.
Courtesy of the pit stops, Ricciardo is up to 5th, 17s behind Perez, but still to stop.
"I can't use third gear mate, it's just lagging," complains Verstappen.
Out front, on lap 28, Hamilton posts a new fastest lap (21.995) as he builds a 3.1s lead.
In case you were wondering, lap times are still being deleted, Alonso the latest to fall foul of the crackdown.
As they are about to be lapped, Latifi makes a great move on his Williams teammate to take 18th.
Verstappen goes quickest in S1, but he loses pace over the rest of the lap and falls a second behind his prey.
"Another great lap," Ricciardo is told, "this is going well, this is going well."
As Perez goes quickest in S2, Ocon nails Gasly in T1 for 11th.
Behind Ricciardo it's Alonso and Stroll, though all three have yet to stop, as have the four drivers ahead.
That said, Verstappen pits at the end of lap 35, the Red Bull driver rejoining in 4th on hards. Replay shows the Dutchman locking-up heavily as he entered the pitlane.
Next time around Bottas pits. Also switching to hards, the Finn rejoins just ahead of Verstappen but on cooler tyres. As Bottas struggles, Verstappen nails him in T4 to take 3rd.
Hamilton pits at the end of lap 37, Hamilton pits. The world champion rejoins in second, 3.5s ahead of Verstappen.
"We are unsafe to Perez on a safety car," Bottas is warned.
Stroll is currently in 7th, the Canadian on the set of softs he started the race with 39 laps earlier. At which point, the Aston Martin driver finally pits. He rejoins in 14th.
Those still to stop are the race leader Perez, Ricciardo and Alonso.
At which point, at the end of lap 40, Alonso pits. The Spaniard rejoins in 11thon hards.
A new fastest lap from Hamilton (21.494), as Ricciardo finally pits.
The Australian rejoins in 10th on hards.
Consequently, after 41 laps, it's: Perez, Hamilton, Verstappen, Bottas, Norris, Leclerc, Sainz, Ocon, Gasly and Ricciardo.
Bottas is told to push it, the Finn appraised that his tyres are really resilient. The Finn responds by posting a new fastest lap (21.469).
That's a new one... Toto Wolff is on the radio, telling Bottas; "hunt him down Valtteri, you're the quickest car". The Finn is currently 2.004s down on the Red Bull.
As Bottas and Verstappen trade fastest sectors, Bottas posts a 20.983.
"Ah, this f****** idiot," complains Perez as he is impeded as he laps a backmarker. No names, but the car is a Haas and the driver isn't German.
A new fastest lap for Hamilton (20.933) as he closes to within 3.9s of Perez.
As he is given advice over the radio, Norris responds: "Just let me drive... I'm flat-out". The Briton, currently 5th, is under attack from Leclerc.
Check out our Sunday gallery from Portimao, here.
Ricciardo passes Gasly for 9th. The Frenchman subsequently loses another place to Alonso.
Mazepin - for it is he - is under investigation for the incident with Perez.
"We are rear limited with this car, with these tyres," warns Hamilton, just moments before passing Perez for the lead. The Briton wasn't actually aware that the Mexican was leading the race.
Perez finally pits at the end of lap 51, rejoining in 4th, on softs, as Alonso passes Ricciardo for 9th.
Mazepin gets a 5s time penalty... which will please him.
After 53 laps, Verstappen is 4.7s down on Hamilton, and 1.2s ahead of Bottas. Perez is 26s down on the Finn.
Perez is told to pace his car and go for fastest lap.
Suddenly Bottas has fallen 5s behind Verstappen, but maintains a 22s comfort cushion over Perez.
There are 10 laps remaining.
"What was that?" asks Bottas. "Was it an exhaust sensor?" comes the reply.
Perez posts a new fastest lap (20.643).
Alonso is hard on the heels of his countryman, Sainz, with Ricciardo 3s behind.
The Alpine driver finally passes the McLaren, Sainz, to be fair, having been the first to pit for mediums.
"Feels like I am slow on the straights," says Bottas. However, Perez remains 25s behind.
A late move - and fresher rubber - sees Stroll pass his Aston Martin teammate for 13th.
Further back, Latifi and Schumacher are having a great scrap for 17th.
Bottas is told to keep pushing, the Finn advised that he might get the opportunity of a free pit stop... and thereby fastest lap. He is currently 28.9s ahead of Perez.
Schumacher nails Latifi to take 17th, as Ricciardo closes in on a struggling Sainz.
Bottas pits at the end of lap 63, the Finn rejoining in third on softs, 3.8s ahead of Perez.
Verstappen pits at the end of lap 64, the Red Bull driver rejoining still in second, 6.9s ahead of Bottas.
Hamilton, when appraised of what Bottas and Verstappen are doing, responds: "Should we?" Told that it is up to him, he responds: "Nah!"
As Gasly passes Sainz, this drops the Ferrari driver out of the points.
Lap 65 sees Bottas post a new fastest lap, but Verstappen immediately goes quickest in S1 of the last lap.
Hamilton takes the flag, while Verstappen takes second and fastest lap (19.849).
Bottas is third, ahead of Perez, Norris, Leclerc, Ocon, Alonso, Ricciardo and Gasly.
Sainz is eleventh, ahead of Giovinazzi, Vettel, Stroll, Tsunoda, Russell, Schumacher, Latifi and Mazepin.
However, Verstappen's time is deleted, which means Bottas gets the fastest lap.
Well, as we said, we don't do hyperbole, which is probably just as well, for that wasn't the entertainment-fest we had hoped for.
Indeed, for the most part is was pretty processional. Furthermore, the conditions that appeared to make qualifying such a lottery yesterday, didn't appear to be a factor this afternoon.
Hamilton leaves here having extended his lead, and ill honesty Mercedes appears to have finally picked up where it left off last year.
Though Verstappen is prone to complain about a lack of power, today it was clear that the Honda is still no match for the Mercedes.
Pretty much as expected, Bottas and Perez didn't really figure, the Mexican appearing to backwards following his stop.
Ferrari will rue stopping Sainz so early, however Leclerc brought home a decent haul of points.
Both McLarens in the points, suggesting that Norris' pre-race doom and gloom was not entirely warranted.
Also both Alpine in the points for the second successive race, though it remains to be seen if Kimi Raikkonen will be promoted back into the points as far as Imola is concerned.
The sport remains on the Iberia peninsular for next weekend's Spanish Grand Prix, sadly a circuit that rarely provides great entertainment.
Let's hope that this season proves to be the exception.
Check out our Sunday gallery from Portimao, here.