11/11/2019
NEWS STORY
While attention focusses on the teams, the biggest worry facing the sport is the uncertainty over the future of engine manufacturers Honda and Renault, as new research reveals that a manufacturer needs to spend over £1bn if it hopes to win the title.
Of the 119 Grand Prix held since the hybrid formula was introduced in 2014, Mercedes has won 88 (73.9%), while Ferrari has won 17 (14.3%), Renault 12 (10.1%) and Honda 2 (1.7%).
Along with the teams, none of which has yet committed to race in F1 beyond the end of 2020, there is the question of the engine manufacturers.
While F1 recently announced its overhaul of the chassis and aero regulations for 2021, the current engine formula is set to continue for several more years.
In spite of Red Bull winning two races in its first season with Honda, Helmut Marko warns that change is needed if the Japanese manufacturer is to remain in the sport.
"(Honda) are waiting until the new regulations are on the table. Then they will analyse them and make a decision," he recently told Auto Motor und Sport.
Warning that reducing Honda's costs is "very important", he fears that "if it doesn't get cheaper there will scarcely be anyone left".
In terms of the regulations he says that change is needed, for the current spec "only works if everyone is at the same level. At the moment Ferrari is ahead of everyone in qualifying, Mercedes included".
Following a 1.6% crash in revenue in the third quarter, not to mention its senior management issues, Renault is also pondering its future in the sport, with Interim chief executive, Clotilde Delbos recently telling analysts that the manufacturing giant is examining all aspects of its business including its participation in F1.
Honda supplies powers units to both Red Bull and Toro Rosso, and while Renault currently supplies McLaren in addition to its works team, from 2021 the Woking outfit switches to Mercedes engines.
Nonetheless, at a time the sport is finding it difficult to attract new teams, the idea of attracting new engine manufacturers doesn't bear thinking about.
Since the introduction of the hybrid era it has so successfully mastered, Mercedes has seen its brand value grow by $16.7bn (£13bn), with Interbrand revealing it hit $48.6bn (£37.8bn) in 2018, with its F1 success playing a significant part as the 'three-pointed star' became the eighth most valuable brand in the world.
At a time many believe there is little in terms of technology transfer between F1 and road cars, Mercedes is seen as the exception.
"Many people say technology transfer is just a marketing story," says Toto Wolff, according to Forbes. "I can tell you, here it is not.
"The S-Class is running on a 6 cylinder turbo engine and the way we optimise our engines in terms of efficiency and power deployment translates directly into road cars," he adds.
"We are using some technology for cooling invented here and that technology is being used in the next generation of S-Class as well. It is all because of the development on track absolutely. So that is happening. It is a reality and this is why the hybrid 6 cylinder turbo engines are so important for us."
Indeed, next year sees the launch of the £2.2m 218 mph Mercedes-AMG One hypercar, the first production car powered by an F1 engine.
However, all this success has come at a price.
According to Forbes, since development of the hybrid V6 power unit began, Mercedes costs have totalled £914.4m ($1.2bn), and while we recently reported that in 2018, its costs only rose by £3.6m ($4.7m), should the trend continue over the course of the hybrid era the German manufacturer will have spent $1.4bn.
And if you were wondering, Ferrari is thought to have spent even more, but as the Italian manufacturer doesn't file separate accounts for its F1 team and the engine division this cannot be verified.
Nonetheless, the fact is that any new manufacturer would be looking at an astronomical level of investment, and even if they already have a racing division the new unit would need to be built from scratch.
Despite being linked with Red Bull, Aston Martin famously did a U-turn in 2018 when the sport scrapped the plan to cap investment in the post-2020 power units, and since then no other manufacturer has been linked with the sport.
Should either Honda or Renault - or worse both - opt to leave F1, it would surely present the sport with its very worst nightmare, and the clock is already ticking.