07/10/2018
NEWS STORY
If Ferrari was relying on the weather gods intervening in an effort to get its title hopes back on track, the Italian team is in for further disappointment today.
Following yesterday's qualifying strategy disaster the skies above Suzuka are bright blue today, with barely a fluffy white cloud to be seen, far less those dark, ominous clouds that might have brought rain, and thereby possible salvation.
However, as the post mortem into that Q3 mess continues, let's be serious, does anyone really believe - based on its current form - that the red cars would have challenged the Silver Arrows?
One could be kind and say that today is all about damage limitation for the Italian team, but in reality it looks as though Mercedes is set to inflict further pain.
Indeed, based on recent evidence, the Italian outfit will be hard-pressed to fend off Red Bull, certainly Max Verstappen's side of the garage.
The post mortem into what has gone wrong at Ferrari is for another time, and rather than concerning ourselves at the Italian team's fate, much as was the case in the early 2000s we should be applauding those leading the way, for much like the Maranello team back then, Mercedes and Lewis Hamilton is the standard by which others must be judged and it is up to the opposition to raise its game.
This isn't Hollywood - even if that's what the sport's owners want - and there will be no eleventh hour revival from Ferrari and Sebastian Vettel, the titles are already decided, it's just a matter of dotting the Is and crossing the Ts.
While Verstappen sarcastically suggested the title fight is already decided, in the same way he is not under orders to move aside for Vettel today, he is free to take on the Mercedes duo, and would surely love to take a win at this most historic of tracks.
Talking of Red Bull, the Austrian outfit will be greatly encouraged by the performance of its sister team yesterday, Brendon Hartley and Pierre Gasly starting sixth and seventh today.
The kiwi, in particular could do with a decent result, and though we doubt even a podium finish will allow him to retain his seat next season, he deserves to leave F1 with some dignity.
As ever, the midfield should provide the real thrills and spills, with Romain Grosjean needing to repay Haas' faith in him by delivering today. Once again, despite his great start to the season, Kevin Magnussen appears a little lost, though it's not clear why.
Of course, both teams need a decent points haul, the American outfit if only to frustrate Renault ahead of next month's appeal hearing following Grosjean's disqualification in Italy.
Demoted three places because of radio confusion, assuming the field survives the first few corners, Esteban Ocon should soon find himself pressurising his Racing Point teammate, and hopefully further embarrassing a sport that seems willing to allow a talent like his to slip through its fingers.
Renault continues to disappoint and as a result, looks likely to be running in that netherworld between the back of the midfield and the McLarens and Williams, the French team seeming to have lost direction in the last couple of races... not the kind of news that poor old Daniel Ricciardo will be wanting to hear.
Expect bravura solo performances from Charles Leclerc and Fernando Alonso, two drivers usually worth the price of admission, one at the end of his career, the other at the beginning.
Which of course, brings us back to Ferrari, for like Alonso, Vettel looks destined never to win a title with the Italian team, certainly under its current management, so one can only hope that Leclerc's career isn't compromised by future failures at Maranello.
With Vettel and Ricciardo starting out of position, it will be worth keeping an eye on both, though at the moment it is the Australian who appears more fired up, his German rival seemingly having accepted his 'fate'.
Crashing out of Q1, Marcus Ericsson, who was starting from the back anyway, has been handed a further 15-place grid penalty after taking on a new gearbox and power unit element.
If nothing else, let's hope that even though it looks likely to be a one-stopper today, we get a race worthy of those ever passionate fans in the stands, who really do make this event something special.
In terms of tyre strategy, the quickest is a one-stopper. One stint on softs for 25 laps, then mediums to the flag. Alternatively, one stint on mediums for 28 laps, then softs to the flag. A bit slower is one stint on supersofts for 20 laps then one stint on mediums to the flag. According to Pirelli a two-stopper is also possible, but slower. The optimal two-stopper is: one stint on supersofts for 14 laps then two stints on softs.
Sadly, that previous paragraph pretty sums up the sport these days, for we ll know that today will be one-stopper, with none of the leaders willing to take a gamble. The fans, the circuit, deserve better, but as the powers-that-be continue in their quest to turn F1 into entertainment it is the sport that suffers.
As the FIA debates whether to have Hankook or Pirelli as tyre supplier, what would really be best is some variety, some competition, but instead, as we see elsewhere in the sport, the inventive element of F1 is being stifled at every turn.
The pitlane opens and one by one the drivers filter out. Interestingly, it is much warmer than on the previous two days, which could begin to play into Ferrari's hands. The Silver Arrows remember qualified on the soft tyres, as did Grosjean, while the rest of the leading ten did it on the supers.
The drivers and dignitaries assemble for the national anthem, which is sung by a group of schoolchildren, so much better than reality 'stars'.
Ahead of the warm-up lap the air temperature is 28.6 degrees C, while the track temperature is 39.4 degrees.
Other than the Silver Arrows and Grosjean, Leclerc, Magnussen, Sainz, Stroll, Ricciardo, Sirotkin, Alonso, Vandoorne and Ericsson have opted for the softs. Hulkenberg is the only driver to start on mediums, while the rest - all of whom are in the leading ten - start on supers.
As they head off on the warm-up lap there's quite a bit of smoke coming from the back of Hulkenberg's car. Nonetheless, he gets away.
Hamilton leads the field around the track and back to the grid.
They're away. All get off the line, with Hamilton covering Bottas and Vettel moving right out towards the pit-wall. Verstappen is all over the Mercedes pair.
Through T1, Vettel is side-by-side with Gasly, the German having the inside line. He moves ahead of the Toro Rosso is T2 and closes on Grosjean.
Vettel continues, now wheel-to-wheel with Grosjean, while Ricciardo passes Magnussen. Vettel nails Grosjean on the approach to Spoon.
At the final chicane, Verstappen locks-up and runs wide, and as he rejoins the track nudges Raikkonen off the track, the Finn losing a place to Vettel in the process. That might be one for the stewards, on the pit-wall Maurizio Arrivabene is clearly less than impressed.
At the end of lap 1, it's: Hamilton, Bottas, Verstappen, Vettel, Raikkonen, Grosjean, Gasly, Perez, Ocon and Hartley. Ricciardo is up to 12th.
Meanwhile, Magnussen has a puncture after clashing with Leclerc at the start, his tyre delaminating.
As Vettel shadows Verstappen, Hamilton builds a 2.4s lead as the stewards confirm they are looking at the first lap clash involving Verstappen and Raikkonen.
A great move sees Ricciardo pass his buddie Hartley for 10th, as Magnussen, still on his way back to the pits, is blue-flagged.
With Magnussen shedding carbon-fibre, the safety car is deployed, as the stewards confirm that are investigating his clash with Leclerc also.
As Hamilton heads the field down the pit straight, where there is lots of debris from Magnussen's car, Leclerc stops for a new nose. Sirotkin also pits.
Verstappen gets a 5s time penalty for leaving the track and not returning safely. "What the ***, I tried to do the best I could," says the youngster, "he drove around the outside."
Alonso and Stroll are under investigation for an incident similar to that of Verstappen's.
Check out our Sunday gallery from Suzuka, here.
The safety car pulls off at the end of lap 7. As the race resumes, Gasly warns of a fire.
Vettel has a look at Verstappen but thinks better of it. Ricciardo closes on the Panthers.
Vettel makes a late, late move on Verstappen at Spoon and they clash, the German spinning off in an incident which may have finally ended his title hopes. He rejoins the track in 19th.
Replay suggests it was Vettel's fault, the Red Bull driver having left him room, as Ricciardo picks off Ocon and sets off after Perez.
Magnussen pits again, his race seemingly over.
The stewards are to investigate the Vettel / Verstappen incident.
Elsewhere, Leclerc and Ericsson clash.
Ricciardo is warned of possible debris as Vettel passes Vandoorne for 18th. The Australian subsequently makes short work of Perez to take 7th.
Vettel passes Ericsson, but he is lapping 5s slower than the leader and is understood to have incurred damage.
Echoes of Verstappen in Russia, as Ricciardo picks off Gasly to take sixth, his next target is Grosjean.
Told the gap to Verstappen is 3s, Raikkonen snaps, "Yeh, but I'm going as fast as I can!" Leave him alone...
Ricciardo cruises past Grosjean, to take fifth and sets about closing the 6s gap to Raikkonen. The Finn has his own problems however, reeling off a litany of issues with the car.
Vettel passes his future teammate to take 14th, the German 34s down on the leader as the TV cameras pick up on the damage to the right-side bargeboard and sidepod on his Ferrari.
Ricciardo losing grip as he closes to within 4s of Raikkonen.
The Finn pits at the end of lap 17, rejoining in 10th on mediums.
Verstappen is told that Raikkonen has pitted, changed to mediums and is in traffic.
Alonso is in no mood to yield to Vettel, and though he holds him off in the final chicane, his McLaren is no match for the Ferrari on the subsequent straight.
Next up for Vettel is Hartley, who is busy battling Sainz for 10th.
Lap 20 sees Hamilton post a new fastest lap (34.336) as he builds a 4.458s comfort cushion to teammate Bottas who is 4.661s ahead of Verstappen.
In one lap, Raikkonen despatches both Panthers and sets off closing the gap to Gasly. However, 32 laps remaining, he will need to mind those mediums.
Alonso is given a 5s penalty for leaving the track and gaining an advantage earlier in the race.
As Verstappen pits - at the end of lap 21 - serving his penalty in the process, Stroll is also handed a 5s penalty for causing a collision. Verstappen switches to the softs and rejoins in 5th.
The youngster is soon up to 4th, passing Grosjean on the approach to 130R.
As the stewards confirm no further action re the Verstappen/Vettel clash, Bottas pits, the Finn rejoining still in second, while Ricciardo also pits, rejoining in fourth, ahead of Raikkonen. More bad news for Ferrari.
Hamilton complains of blistering, and told "it won't be long", immediately pits. Like his teammate - and Raikkonen and Ricciardo - he switches to the mediums, rejoining still in the lead.
Verstappen doesn't sound overly impressed when told he faces a 32-lap stint on his softs. All around him are now on mediums.
Lap 25 sees a new fastest lap from Bottas (33.519), as the Finn remains 4.3s behind his teammate.
Hamilton unhappy with the drivability of his car and encountering a problem with upshifts.
After 26 laps of 53, the Briton leads Bottas, Verstappen, Ricciardo, Raikkonen, Grosjean, Gasly, Sainz and Hartley, as Ocon, Vettel and Alonso all pit. The German switches to softs and rejoins in 16th.
With 6th-placed Grosjean through to 10th-placed Hulkenberg yet to stop, the midfield battle is shaping up nicely.
Leclerc barges his way past Hulkenberg, with Perez also nailing a clearly stunned Renault driver.
Back to that midfield fight, when they do pit, that group will resume battle with Leclerc and the Panthers, who have already pitted.
Grosjean and Gasly pit at the end of lap 29, rejoining in 7th and 15th respectively.
Perez makes cheeky move on Grosjean as he exits the pits but the Frenchman is having absolutely none of it. Meanwhile, Vettel closes in on Ocon.
The German passes the Force India on the run to the final chicane, moments later passing his future teammate Leclerc again.
After 31 laps, 6th placed Sainz is the only driver still to stop.
Ocon passes Leclerc to take 10th, as Vettel lines-up Perez.
Sainz finally pits at the end of lap 32, switching to the mediums he rejoins in 14th.
A great move sees Gasly pass Ericsson for 11th, while Vettel despatches Perez for 7th.
All are on mediums now bar Verstappen, Vettel, Perez, Gasly, Hartley and Hulkenberg, who are all on softs.
Lap 34 sees Vettel post a new fastest lap (33.243), and even as he passes Grosjean for sixth, it is little consolation.
Sirotkin and Hartley side-by-side as they battle for 14th, while Leclerc passes Sainz for 11th.
Having lost out badly during his pit stop, Gasly is back up to 10th and goes quickest in S1 as he sets about making up lost ground.
Leclerc makes his second stop of the afternoon, switching to softs he rejoins in last place.
Despite the earlier penalty, Verstappen is only 3.8s down on Bottas.
Alonso passes Stroll for 15th and in the process gives the Canadian a little 'warning' following their earlier clash.
"Have you gone for a break Bono, I haven't had an update for a while," says Hamilton.
Meanwhile, Verstappen is discussing tyres, admitting that he didn't like the supers at the beginning.
At the end of lap 38, Hulkenberg becomes the second retirement of the afternoon.
As they weave their way through the backmarkers, Verstappen closes to within 1.7s of Bottas.
Running very wide at the second Degner, Leclerc kicks up a massive cloud of dust. "Something broke, ooh, something broke," he reports, before parking the car.
The VSC is subsequently deployed.
The Mercedes crew heads out, but with the VSC almost immediately withdrawn they return to their garage.
Hamilton leads by 5.6s while Bottas' lead to Verstappen is down to 1.2s. Ricciardo is fourth, ahead of Raikkonen, Vettel, Perez, Grosjean, Ocon and Gasly.
Check out our Sunday gallery from Suzuka, here.
As Grosjean complains about Perez' move on him, Bottas locks-up and loses further ground to Verstappen. However, the sheer grunt advantage of the Mercedes - not to mention dirty air - soon allows him to pull away.
On those ageing softs, Verstappen cannot afford to get into the Finn's dirty air.
"Unbelievable," moans Alonso, "we are four seconds down on lap time."
Verstappen is told he has two uses of the overtake button (Mode 7) available.
Ricciardo reports his left-front has taken a "pretty big hit" since the safety car.
Ocon is closing in on Grosjean, as the Panthers seek to add to the Haas driver's misery.
Sainz closes in on Gasly, currently last of the point scorers, as Renault looks to take something away from the weekend.
Another lock-up from Bottas sees Verstappen close to within 0.9s.
A lock-up for Hamilton also, though the Briton maintains a 10.6s lead.
Hamilton told to be careful of the drivers ahead as they are fighting for points... we're talking Sainz, Gasly and Grosjean.
Stuck behind Ericsson in 13th, Hartley says: "I'm so much quicker, but I cannot get by."
Sainz passes Gasly on lap 51, thereby dumping Toro Rosso and Honda out of the points.
Lap 51 also sees a new fastest lap from Hamilton, the Briton posting a 32.785 as he rams home his - and Mercedes - superiority.
As Hamilton begins his final lap, Verstappen is 0.666s down on Bottas.
"Overtake is available, battery is full," Verstappen is told, but he subsequently locks-up.
As Hamilton takes the flag, Vettel takes fastest lap (32.670), but nobody will really care. Indeed, it's almost insulting.
Hamilton wins, ahead of Bottas, Verstappen, Ricciardo, Raikkonen, Vettel, Perez, Grosjean, Ocon and Sainz.
Gasly is eleventh, ahead of Ericsson, Hartley, Alonso, Vandoorne, Sirotkin and Stroll.
A commanding performance from Hamilton and Mercedes, both so clearly on top of their game that even had Ferrari and Vettel not made their numerous mistakes this weekend they would have remained unchallenged.
Bottas did well to hold on to second, while excellent performances from both Red Bull drivers, Verstappen recovering well from his early penalty - and the switch to softs - and Ricciardo doing a great job in recovering from 15th to finish ahead of the Ferraris.
In the closing stages there was talk of Raikkonen yielding to Vettel, but with the German half-a-second behind that was never plausible. Quite what the Italian media will make of this weekend remains to be seen, but it has been a poor showing from both the team and Vettel.
Another strong showing from Racing Point, which is now closing in on McLaren - while Haas adds another four points to its tally as it seeks fourth in the team standings.
Though Renault leaves with a solitary point, Toro Rosso and Honda leave with nothing, as does Sauber.
Some will point to this as a 'turning point', though it is unclear for whom.
When one really thinks about it, the title was won/lost a few weeks back, the inevitable outcome only consolidated by the ever improving efforts of one party and the ever deteriorating performances of the other.
Time to put the Prancing Horse out of its misery.
"I loved it," says Hamilton at race end. "I was actually very, very happy. I think the whole weekend's been very strong from the team, it's a great 1-2 from Mercedes, it a true showing of the great strength in depth we have as a team.
"This track is the best track in the world. I don't know why they don't make tracks like this anymore but every second of the run it was just great fun. I was able to look after my tyres the way I wanted and just managed the pace. It's really weird - obviously I have been racing a long, long time, but the happiness I have inside is as high as always. It's a great feeling."
Asked about his concerns at blistering, he replies: "Yeah, I asked the team but they said it was OK. But really, these guys here you see at the track, the guys back at the factory, these guys work so hard to create this... this beast, and I'm so proud and grateful to have the chance to do what I do with it. I've been racing a long, long time now but, as I said, it feels like one of the first.
"I'll take it one step at a time," he says in terms of the title. "Each week you have a positive weekend and you go to another grand prix and you're not sure how you're going to fare and how you're going to perform, because there are still gaps in between, but I think we have gone from strength to strength this year as a team, so I really hope that we can... Austin is usually a good track for us, so I can't wait to unleash this beast there."
"Initially during the race, everything felt good," adds Bottas. "I knew what I had to do and I was really just executing the plan. The pace felt good. But at the end of the second stint I had some blistering, which made it a bit more tricky, but anyway, for me the job was to get to the finish line in P2.
"We managed to save the engine to save the engine a bit because the pace was so good. But no issues otherwise."
"In general I think to nurse the car home with the damage I had on the floor, we did a great job," says Verstappen. "The strategy initially was a bit tricky, with the supersoft tyres, but then once we got the soft tyres on it was actually working really well, and you could see that near the end we had the pace, even with the damage, so I'm happy about that.
Asked about the two incidents involving the Ferrari drivers, he says: "Yes, I braked a little bit too late into the chicane, so I did everything I could to get back onto the track and I think I did it in a safe way, because I was not crazy-fast onto the track, but Kimi chose the wrong line in the chicane. He could have also just waited for me to come back on the track. We touched a little bit, but I think it's really ridiculous those five seconds. But anyway, we managed to survive that and then even before the pit stop, the touch with Sebastian - in that corner you can't overtake. I even gave him space, but he understeered into my car. It's a shame, but still happy to be on the podium."
Check out our Sunday gallery from Suzuka, here.