26/08/2018
NEWS STORY
If there were any justice in the world, far less F1, this afternoon's podium will comprise Kimi Raikkonen, Esteban Ocon and Stoffel Vandoorne.
Each, in their own way, is being treated shabbily at present, albeit to varying degrees and for various reasons.
While Ferrari makes a mistake in calculating the amount of fuel Kimi needed in Q3 - it just so happening at Spa, a circuit where the Finn has won four times before and was clearly looking good for pole - Esteban could be in a McLaren - a bloody McLaren - as early as next week, while Stoffel's last race could be in said McLaren driving to last place, ironically sporting a helmet echoing the Woking team's rich history.
You couldn't make it up, as they say.
Back to reality, and first off it's best to deal with the weather. While most believe that talking about the weather is a preoccupation of the British, when it comes to Spa the weather - or climatic conditions as race control would have it - is vital, for conditions can change alarmingly in a matter of moments.
Today's race is expected to take place under much cloud and unseasonably cool temperatures but with no threat of rain.
So that's that out of the way.
Of course, Lewis Hamilton can thank the changeable conditions for pole position, for had Q3 taken place in sunshine or even cloud it is highly likely that one of the Ferraris would have taken pride of place.
Courtesy of Valtteri Bottas' demotion to the back of the grid, Hamilton has the ominous task of holding off the two Ferraris this afternoon, a task that will be particularly tough on the opening lap, not so much on the run to La Source but that long climb up the Kemmel Straight to Les Combes. One can almost envisage the Ferraris sweeping either side of him much like Mika Hakkinen and Michael Schumacher passed a startled Riccardo Zonta back in 2000.
Up against two very quick Ferraris, with nobody to ride shotgun, Hamilton faces a tough task this afternoon, though the Briton - as ever - doesn't seem unduly bothered.
While Vettel needs a win to close the points gap, Raikkonen, who adores the track, is looking good and will surely be fired up after the frustration of yesterday. Then again, should he help his teammate, the Finn could well find himself confirmed for another season at Maranello over the Italian GP weekend next week.
Both Mercedes and Ferrari have engine upgrades this weekend, which is bad news for the rest, particularly Red Bull.
Starting seventh and eighth, Verstappen and Ricciardo both lost out in the madness of Q3, the Australian having a particularly difficult weekend.
Due to their poor grid positions, the Bulls find themselves caught up in what should be a titanic midfield battle this afternoon, with the Force Indias and Romain Grosjean ahead, and Magnussen, the Toro Rossos and Saubers behind.
While we are not expecting the carnage of 1998, let's not forget that Spa has history... just ask Romain.
For the Williams and McLaren pairs it's going to be a long afternoon, and while Lance Stroll can comfort himself with the thought that this could be his last outing in the Williams, poor old Vandoorne may well be contesting his last Grand Prix.
Not that it matters, but overnight McLaren opted to change the engine in Vandoorne's car meaning that he is demoted from the back of the grid to the... back of the grid. Carlos Sainz suffers a similar fate after Renault opted to change the engine in his car, having changes the engine in teammate Nico Hulkenberg's at the start of the weekend.
In terms of tyre strategy, the quickest option is a one-stopper featuring one stint on supersofts for 16 laps then one stint on softs to the flag. If starting on softs however, change after 28 laps to supersoft. If the temperatures rise, or there's blistering on the supersofts, there are two possible alternative strategies: a one-stopper featuring one stint on supersofts for 12 laps plus one stint on mediums, or: one stint on softs for 25 laps plus one stint on mediums. A two-stopper (two stints on supersofts for 13 plus 13 laps, then softs) would be more than 15 seconds slower.
While we don't expect Bottas to make it to a podium position, the right tyre strategy, that engine upgrade and some arms-out, ballsy driving could should see him well up the order.
The pitlane opens and the drivers head out one-by-one.
"The balance is on the nose," reports Hamilton. "There's a headwind and I'm sliding around on the rears." And that's on his way to the grid.
Vettel asks for his steering to be checked, the German feeling it is not centred, while Bottas complains his pedals are slippery.
Ahead of the warm up lap, with the air temperature a very, very cool 12 degrees C, and the track temperature 29 degrees, race control reveals that there is a 20% chance of rain.
All are starting on the supers bar Hartley, Leclerc, Ericsson, Alonso, Sirotkin, Stroll, Bottas, Hulkenberg and Vandoorne, who are on softs, while Sainz is on mediums.
The field heads off on the warm-up lap with Ricciardo warned that there's a headwind into T12 and a tailwind out of T15.
They're away. Hamilton and Vettel get away cleanly as Perez moves across to cover Ocon's rear. Into La Source, Hamilton has the inside, as Vettel does wide to prevent Ocon moving through behind the Mercedes.
Further back there's smoke and debris and suddenly there's a McLaren flying through the air over the top of a Sauber. Hulkenberg is also involved in what is a very nasty accident and typical of what we've seen here over the years.
"Come on, what the ****," says Leclerc, who literally doesn't know what hit him.
Replay shows Hulkenberg going too deep into the corner as he makes up for that back of the grid start position and locking-up. He hits Alonso who is launched over Leclerc... ironic when one considers that in 2012 it was Grosjean going over the top of the Spaniard.
In a separate incident Ricciardo is hit from behind - possibly by Alonso - and subsequently understeers into an innocent Raikkonen, while Bottas also goes too deep into T1 and hits a Williams
As they head up the hill, Vettel and Hamilton are side-by-side with the Panthers in close attendance. Almost four abreast, what with the Panthers, Vettel passes the Mercedes with ease into Les Combes but then the safety car is deployed.
Raikkonen has a puncture, in fact he has no right-rear tyre and is slowly heading back to the pit. Ricciardo also pits, the Australian taking on a new rear wing. Changing the wing is no easy task and as the car is pushed back into its garage, Ricciardo waits patiently.
The stewards are to investigate the incident after the race.
Behind the safety car it's: Vettel, Hamilton, Perez, Ocon, Verstappen, Grosjean, Magnussen, Gasly, Ericsson and Sirotkin.
Raikkonen has switched to mediums as has Vandoorne, while Bottas is now on supers.
As Ricciardo leaves the pits, two laps down, Raikkonen is setting an impressive pace as he attempts to catch up with the leaders. He's currently 14th.
The safety car is withdrawn at the end of lap 4, Hamilton makes an early attack but locks-up at the chicane.
That mistake costs Hamilton who is unable to challenge Vettel on the run up the Kemmel Straight.
Verstappen is shadowing the Panthers, while the Haas pair shadow the lone Red Bull.
A great re-start for Sirotkin who nailed Ericsson to take ninth.
Bottas has passed Raikkonen to take 15th.
Meanwhile, the stewards have noted that other first lap incident, that involving Raikkonen and Ricciardo.
Posting a fastest lap (48.923), Vettel has a 2.2s lead over Hamilton who is 3s clear of Perez and Ocon who is under pressure for Verstappen.
Check out our Sunday gallery from Spa, here.
Despite his best efforts, Ocon is unable to resist Verstappen as he makes his moves at Les Combes. Much to the delight of the crowd. A classic dummy and late braking manoeuvre from the Dutchman.
Bottas passes Hartley in Eau Rouge - yes Eau Rouge - to take 13th, while Raikkonen pits for an adjustment to his front wing following that early incident. He rejoins in 16th.
As for that incident, there will be no further action.
As Verstappen closes on Perez, Vettel posts another fastest lap (48.646).
Raikkonen complains he has no grip and the car won't go straight in a straight line. "I can't go anywhere like this," he complains, adding that his DRS is stuck open.
As Bottas passes Sainz for 12th, Raikkonen pits and retires. So much for that podium.
In a repeat of his earlier move, Verstappen sweeps past Perez at Les Combes, again the crowd voices its approval. That's the Dutch contingent as opposed to the Mexican contingent.
As Bottas passes Sirotkin for tenth, teammate Hamilton is 3.8s down on the leader and 10.5s ahead of Verstappen.
Perez warned of a 20 km/h tailwind into T10.
Asked about his car's balance, Verstappen replies: "It's actually nice to drive, it's all under control."
After 15 laps, it's: Vettel, Hamilton, Verstappen, Perez, Ocon, Grosjean, Magnussen, Gasly, Ericsson and Bottas.
Hamilton sets a new fastest lap (48.479), as the gap to Vettel remains at 3.6s.
As Ricciardo complains that he's struggling for pace, we have to admit that we'd forgotten all about him.
As Bottas lines up Ericsson, Hamilton posts another fastest lap (48.208). Bottas takes 9th.
"Let's try to be clever," Ericsson is told, "let's use Bottas to try to pass Gasly." The words 'you'll', 'be' and 'lucky' spring to mind.
Indeed, as Bottas passes the Toro Rosso, the Sauber is already 2.2s behind.
The Mercedes crew emerge, but then head back in to the comfort of the garage.
Bottas is told that his left-rear has a blister but that it seems good. Asked about his tyres, Hamilton replies: "Tyres are good". That said, the TV cameras pick up on some nasty blistering on the Briton's rears.
"These are really good laps, you're doing a really good job managing the tyres," Grosjean is told.
Down in tenth, Ericsson is slowly catching Gasly.
"Keep doing what you're doing," Verstappen is told.
At the end of lap 21, Hamilton pits. Switching to the softs he rejoins in third, 3s down on Verstappen. Further around the track, Vettel is told to "box". "Push now," the German is advised.
Bottas splits the Haas pair to go 7th.
Vettel pits and switches to softs, rejoining still leading, with Verstappen separating him from Hamilton.
However, the Briton nails the Red Bull on the run up to Les Combes, and sets about closing the 1.7s gap to Vettel, certainly before the German gets his tyres up to speed.
The world champion posts a new fastest lap (46.721) as Vettel begins to extend his lead again.
Grosjean pits at the end of lap 12, rejoining in 10th on softs. Stroll also pits.
Ocon pits at the end of lap 24, rejoining in 8th on the softs. Sirotkin also pits.
As Vettel posts a new fastest lap (46.644), Perez is told to "use everything from the tyre". Which appears to be Pantherspeak for "box", because that is precisely what the Mexican does. Gasly also pits.
Verstappen pits at the end of lap 26, the Red Bull still in third - on the softs - ahead of Bottas. Magnussen and Ericsson also pit.
After 27 laps, with all but Hartley having pitted, Vettel leads Hamilton, Verstappen, Bottas, Perez, Ocon, Grosjean, Magnussen, Gasly and Hartley.
Hamilton is told that tyre wear isn't an issue and that his blistering isn't an issue.
Fun and games in 9th as Hartley and Ericsson swap positions seemingly corner by corner.
Vettel is told he's doing a good job with his tyres.
Bottas pits at the end of lap 29, the Finn switching to softs and dropping from fourth to sixth in the process.
"Box this lap to retire," Ricciardo is told, his crew adding that he should still "keep up the pace".
Much of the field is pretty equally spread out now, though Bottas is closing on Ocon.
"Is there any chance of rain," asks a frustrated Verstappen. Not in the next hour, he is told. The Dutchman is currently 24s down on Hamilton and 27s ahead of Perez, so feeling a little lonely.
Now Bottas posts a new fastest lap (46.286), as Hartley finally pits.
Hamilton is warned he'll be "hitting" back-markers in about six laps.
"I'm giving everything, man," says Perez as he seeks to hold off Bottas who is 3.1s behind and closing.
Meanwhile, Bottas is told that he will catch the Mexican.
"Last lap, Bottas same pace as you," Perez is told.
Down in 11th, Sainz is pressing hard, looking to close the 12.3s gap to Ericsson, the last of the current point-scoring positions.
Bottas has closed to within 0.8s of Perez. As the head up to Les Combes, with the aid of DRS, the Finn sweeps past the Mexican who can do absolutely nothing about it.
Any lingering doubts about the Halo are dismissed when the cameras pick up on Leclerc's car following its close encounter with Alonso.
Vettel begins his final lap as the German takes an important victory which closes the gap to Hamilton to 17 points.
"FP1, Sebastian," the German is told over the radio as he takes the flag. "Fair and square," he replies.
He climbs from the Ferrari, stands on the nose and punches the air... he then runs to his crew. Hamilton, meanwhile, has a close inspection of the Ferrari as Vettel takes a Scuderia flag from his crew.
Check out our Sunday gallery from Spa, here.
Told that today's victory sees him surpass Alain Prost in terms of wins, Vettel, who knows his F1 history, is clearly moved. "More wins than Alain," he says, clearly lost in the moment.
"I had a great start," he continues, "I'm not sure Lewis saw me, he pushed me quite far to the left. I knew my chance would be later on, up the hill, and I think I timed it well. Obviously, last year I was always ending up short, but it was better this year, we had a little less wing. The timing was crucial, then the Force India came as well, but as soon as I was ahead I was quite relieved. Then there was the safety car.
"I had a very good re-start," he continues, "a very good exit at T1. After that a very smooth race... Lewis pushed very hard, especially the first stint. Yeh, a great weekend!
"Also going through traffic I was a bit fortunate I got them on the straights, so I didn't lose much time," he adds. "Then I could see he wasn't pushing the last 15 laps so I could relax a bit more.
"I really enjoyed the race. To get a lot of time on this track is very nice, with a great car it's even better. Now I'm looking forward to next week".
"Congratulations to Seb," says Hamilton. "I did everything I could in the race, but he drove past me like I wasn't even there on the straight. So we've got to keep pushing as hard as we can to try and see if we can catch up."
Asked if he feels he could have "sneaked through" at the re-start, he smiles and replies: "I probably could have, but again, he'd just go past me down the straight. They've got a few trick things going on in the car... I did what I could. We've just got to keep working.
"Initially it was a bit chaotic," says Verstappen of the start, "I had to past as a few cars but I stayed out of trouble and after that I just did my own race. I'm very happy to get on the podium today.
"Before we've been a bit unlucky, but that happens sometimes," he adds. "But I'm happy with today."
Before the podium ceremony Hamilton barely exchanges glances with Vettel, the Briton is clearly miffed.
We now head to Monza, a race where twelve months ago it all went totally wrong for the Scuderia.
This time around, thirty years after that emotional win that appeared to mark Enzo Ferrari's passing, and twenty years after another emotional win, that saw a certain website editor left hoarse for several days, can Ferrari give the Tifosi something to celebrate?
Check out our Sunday gallery from Spa, here.