19/06/2016
NEWS STORY
Whilst we usually rely on the weather gods to provide the uncertainty the fate of today's race lies elsewhere. Be it Bernie Ecclestone, Charlie Whiting, Hermann Tilke, the FIA or the Baku authorities, the fact is that a lot of people will be holding their breath at the start, hoping that we can get through the following 51 laps without incident.
Of course, based on the evidence thus far that seems highly unlikely. Other than the many incidents in every session, including world champion Lewis Hamilton clouting the wall in Q3 yesterday, both GP2 races have required re-starts.
Indeed, looking at the GP2, and, to a certain extent, the F1, the Baku city circuit appears to bring out the worst in drivers.
Normally, will a frustrated Hamilton starting from tenth we would relish the Briton's fight back. However, today we will be glad simply to see the Mercedes driver and his colleagues simply make it to the flag.
If we sound cautious, indeed nervous, it's because we are. From the moment the first picture of this circuit began to emerge, depicting its narrowness, the close proximity of the walls, the smooth dusty surface and the high speeds, we were concerned, and nothing we have seen since has eased those fears.
However, as Mike Lawrence keeps on reminding us, F1's mantra is 'follow the money', and as Bernie Ecclestone told the drivers, 'if you don't like it, go home'.
Consequently today's race is either going to be remembered for its carnage or its classic racing. Either we are going to see a number of re-starts and just a handful of finishers or a couple of drivers are going to rise to the occasion and deliver performances of epic proportions, in the mould of Senna at Donington.
Having seen (allowed) his championship lead to drop to 9 points, today is Nico Rosberg's opportunity to rebuild some of his previous advantage. After two woeful performances in Monaco and Canada the German certainly needs to deliver something worthwhile today if we are to continue taking him seriously.
Sadly, the grid penalty incurred by Sergio Perez following his late crash in FP3, necessitating a new gearbox, means the Mexican will not start from the front row, though we still expect to see him leave here with a decent points haul.
Against all odds Daniel Ricciardo took third on the grid, even though the slot appeared to be reserved for one of the several Mercedes powered cars. With teammate Max Verstappen starting from ninth, the Australian has a real chance to grab the spotlight today.
Starting fourth and fifth must be a lot better than Ferrari had hoped for, though there are doubts as to the reliability of the car. If nothing else, a good result might stop the Italian rumour mill.
Massa starts a well-earned sixth ahead of Daniil Kvyat, a driver whose weekend suddenly sprang to life in qualifying, a driver who really needs a result.
And then we have Valtteri Bottas and Max Verstappen, who have been engaged in a war of words since yesterday's qualifying session in a couple of incidents that were questionable.
And as if that isn't enough, we then have Lewis, who heads Hulkenberg, Grosjean and the rest.
Late gearbox changes see Carlos Sainz and Kevin Magnussen incur penalties, the Spaniard dropping to 18th whilst the Dane will start from the pitlane,
Honestly, this is a race in which anything can, and probably will, happen. Whilst we might well see the same three drivers on the podium that we saw in yesterday's post qualifying press conference, we could just as easily see a Manor driver up there along with a Sauber pilot.
This is one race that will not be won at the first corner, but can be decided.
Tyre options are supersoft, soft and medium. A one-stop seems to be the best option. The top 10 will all start on used supersoft, and we would expect them to move onto the soft on lap 22.
If starting on the soft, the time to switch to supersoft is lap 29. However, strategies will have to be flexible, as there appears to be a high likelihood of a safety car.
Whilst the GP2 races showed us the various negatives, it also gave us some great overtakes, courtesy not only of DRS but slipstreaming, something we have already seen a number of F1 drivers take advantage of here this weekend.
The pitlane opens and one by one the drivers head out, among the first is Lewis Hamilton.
Air temperature is 33 degrees C, whilst the track temperature is 48 degrees.
The drivers gather for the Azerbaijan national anthem, one of the better ones, only Hamilton opts for a sun shade.
All are starting on the supersoft, bar Hulkenberg, Wehrlein and Ericsson who have opted for the soft.
The field heads off on the warm-up lap, a great cloud of tyre smoke fills the air.
They're away. Strong starts from Rosberg and Ricciardo, the German moving across to cover the charging Australian. Behind, Massa locks-up heavily into T1, allowing Perez through, whilst there's a little bit of argy-bargy at the rear involving Gutierrez and Haryanto as Palmer goes wide. A good start for Verstappen also.
It's all very cautious for much of the first lap, though Kvyat is giving Massa a hard time.
At the end of lap 1, it's: Rosberg, Ricciardo, Vettel, Raikkonen, Perez, Massa, Kvyat, Verstappen, Bottas and Hamilton. Haryanto pits following that clash with Gutierrez.
Bottas, who had a poor start, passes Kvyat for eighth in T3 having previously been thwarted at T1. The field continues to tread very carefully.
Hamilton also passes Kvyat as the Briton moves up to ninth, with Grosjean following through moments later as the Russian struggles with the Toro Rosso.
Bottas and Verstappen renew their qualifying battle, with the Finn giving the Red Bull driver a hard time
Now Hamilton closes on Verstappen also with Grosjean also closing in. Bottas passes the Red Bull as Hamilton loos to try and pass on the other side. The Briton nails the Red Bull driver.
Perez is putting pressure on Raikkonen, he makes a move but fails and loses ground.
At the end of lap 5, Verstappen is the first driver to make a tyre stop, Alonso pits also.
Out front, Rosberg enjoys an 8.3s advantage over Vettel who is 2.8s ahead of Ricciardo.
Ricciardo stops at the ends of lap 6, as do Button and Magnussen. The Australian rejoins in 13th.
"There is ****** plastic flying around, I'm trying to avoid it," complains Raikkonen, referring to plastic bags that are on the track.
Kvyat's race is over, the Russian's car pushed back into its garage.
Check out our Sunday gallery, here.
Massa pits at the end of lap 7, as teammate Bottas fends off Hamilton. The Brazilian rejoins in 12th.
Told to box, Vettel says "Are you sure about this, the pace is quite good" Consequently, it is Raikkonen who pits first, the Finn rejoining in 11th.
Ricciardo passes Grosjean to take 7th and sets off after Hulkenberg who is 2.75s up the road.
Perez has Bottas and Hamilton glued to the rear of his force India, as Rosberg posts a new fastest lap (49.930).
Hamilton makes a bold move on Bottas in T1 to take fourth, whilst Raikkonen finally gets past the Mercedes-powered Manor of Wehrlein.
Grosjean pits at the end of lap 10, rejoining in 18th.
Another fastest lap from Rosberg (49.907), who is now 13.869s clear of Vettel who is 10.47s ahead of Perez.
As Palmer pits, Massa sweeps by Wehrlein to take 9th.
Raikkonen is under investigation for crossing the line at the pit entry.
As Raikkonen goes quickest (49.735), Ricciardo leaves Hulkenberg (still on softs) for dead, going around the outside in T11 to take 6th.
Raikkonen gets a 5s time penalty. Bet he takes that well.
Verstappen passes Ericsson to take 11th, the Red Bull driver's next target being Wehrlein who is just ahead.
Lap 14 sees Rosberg respond with a new fastest lap (49.389) as he extends his lead to 16.889.
As Hamilton complains of a brake vibration - as opposed to good vibration - Verstappen passes Wehrlein to move into the points.
"The circuit is picking up," Vettel assured his team. Meanwhile teammate Raikkonen is all over Hulkenberg.
Hamilton pits at the end of lap 15, as Raikkonen goes around the outside of Hulkenberg in T11 to take 6th. Hamilton rejoins in 9th, just ahead of Verstappen.
At the end of lap 16 Perez pits. The Mexican rejoins in 8th, ahead of Hamilton. Ericsson also pits.
After 16 laps, the leading three - Rosberg, Vettel and Bottas - have yet to stop, as have Hulkenberg and Wehrlein.
Replay shows Hamilton locking-up in T6 as he trades fastest sectors with Perez. The Briton subsequently posts 48.187.
Raikkonen is all over Ricciardo as they battle for 4th.
Told "let's have him, it will change our race if we do," Raikkonen responds with a bold move on Ricciardo in T1 to take 4th. Elsewhere, Button gives the wall a big kiss without any significant damage.
As Bottas pits, he rejoins just ahead of Verstappen, as Hamilton nails Masa to take 7th.
Vettel pits at the end of lap 20, rejoining in third, ahead of Ricciardo. Hulkenberg also pits, as does Verstappen. The Dutch youngster takes on the medium rubber.
Next time around it is Rosberg who pits, the German rejoining still in the lead.
Ricciardo now heads a train of three cars, the other carriages being Perez and Hamilton. The Mercedes-powered cars make short work of the Renault (Tag Heuer), the Australian losing two position in as many corners.
"Please be careful in T8," Wehrlein is told, "we've had a final warning. Please be careful." Naturally, the German disputes the call.
Ricciardo pits at the end of lap 22, like his teammate he switches to the medium rubber.
Hulkenberg passes Nasr to take 11th, setting off after Button.
Already enjoying a lead of 19.481s, Rosberg posts a new fastest lap (47.954).
Hulkenberg makes short work of Button and then sets his sights on his McLaren teammate Alonso who is just 0.5s ahead.
After 24 laps, it's: Rosberg, Raikkonen, Vettel, Perez, Hamilton, Massa, Bottas, Sainz, Alonso and Hulkenberg.
As Alonso and Nasr pit, Pirelli confirms: "Interestingly, we thought this would be an obvious one-stopper, but in the end we'll see a mixture of one and two stops."
Hulkenberg sweeps by Sainz to take 8th, as Button and Ericsson pit.
Ricciardo passes Sainz in T1 to take 9th as Hamilton, unable to make a mark on Perez, complains that his Kinetic energy is playing up. "D-rates everywhere," he says, "I'm sure that's not helping." The team assures him it is monitoring the situation.
Vettel passes Raikkonen to take second, the order having clearly been given. Thanked by his team, the Finn replies: "Now you tell him to push, I don't want him in front of me" clearly aware of that time penalty.
Sainz pits again, this time switching to the supersofts. Massa also pits.
In clear air, Vettel posts a new fastest lap (47.582), but remains 17.438s down on race leader Rosberg.
Despite all the doom and gloom, the fears of carnage, Kvyat remains the only retirement.
Check out our Sunday gallery, here.
Button passes palmer in T1 to take 13th.
Hamilton is getting despondent. There is a problem with his mode, however, because of the regulations the team is unable to give him any further info. His frustration is obvious.
Now 7.8 down on Perez, Hamilton is 15.9s ahead of Bottas but losing a second a lap.
Sainz becomes the second retirement of the afternoon, the Spaniard, who pulls off at T1, complaining of a suspension issue.
Whilst Hamilton struggles, teammate Rosberg posts a new fastest lap as he extends his lead.
This is ridiculous, I don't want to be looking at my dash every five seconds, trying to work out what switch is in the wrong position," he moans.
"I might not finish this race," warns Hamilton, his frustration growing. "We don't advise that," comes the reply.
He asks if he can make a suggestion and receive advice in an attempt to solve his issue. "That's not allowed," he is told.
If he thinks he's got problems, he should try dealing with Plusnet.
After 36 laps the field is evenly strung out - though not in the 60s sense - the only real battle being that of the McLarens for 12th.
It's Rosberg, Vettel, Raikkonen, Perez, Hamilton, Bottas, Hulkenberg, Ricciardo, Massa and Verstappen.
Thankfully for Hamilton, although he has lost ground to Perez he remains 15s clear of Bottas.
In third, Raikkonen needs to make up around 2s if he is to hold on to third, taking his 5s penalty into account.
Finally, with the aid of slipstream, Button nails Alonso into T1, the Spaniard initially resits and then falls in behind.
As the leaders make their way through the backmarkers, Raikkonen complains about the lack of blue flags. He is not happy. "Where the **** are the blue flags," he demands. "I've been following the whole ******* lap."
Alonso is passed by Nasr, as Grosjean also closes in on the McLaren driver.
Wehrlein is off at T1, his race seemingly over. "I have no brakes," he complains. "Completely broken brakes."
A brief skirmish sees Grosjean pass Alonso. The Spaniard retakes the position, only for the Frenchman to snatch it straight back.
From out of nowhere, Hamilton produces a fastest lap (46.822), so clearly something has sorted itself out.
"We can see the problem is getting worse," Alonso is told, "we need to box." Elsewhere, teammate Button passes Magnussen for 11th.
Alonso pits and retires.
Ricciardo closes in on Hulkenberg as the pair prepare to battle for 7th.
A great move by Verstappen sees Massa caught totally unawares, thereby allowing the Red Bull driver to take ninth.
Sensing a problem with his MGU-K, Raikkonen asks for advice. Given a negative, he says, "surely you can say yes or no!" "We can't," comes the response."
The Finn is going to be even more ****** off when he learns that he's going to lose his podium position.
On lap 48, with three remaining, Ricciardo finally passes Hulkenberg in T1 for seventh, just when it appeared all was lost.
Already 18s clear of Vettel, Rosberg bangs in a new fastest lap (46.485), probably out of boredom more than anything else.
Perez is closing in on Raikkonen, the Mexican no doubt sensing that he can take third on the road rather than relying on the Finn's penalty.
Verstappen passes Hulkenberg in T1, clearly not the German's favourite corner, to take 8th.
As Rosberg begins his final lap, Perez nails Raikkonen heading into T1 to take third, much to the delight of the Force India crew.
"Awesome," says Rosberg as he takes the flag, the German having opened up his championship lead from 9 to 24 points.
Vettel takes a much-nned second, ahead of Perez, Raikkonen, Hamilton, Bottas, Ricciardo, Verstappen, Hulkenberg and Massa.
Button is eleventh, ahead of Nasr, Grosjean, Magnussen, Palmer, Gutierrez, Ericsson and Haryanto.
Not the mayhem and misery we expected, rather a somewhat processional event, the F1 drivers no doubt chastened by the antics of their GP2 predecessors.
Some excellent performances, not least Perez, whilst, it has to be said, Rosberg, Vettel and friends did what they are paid to do.
The big question as we head to Austria is the continued ban on radio communication bans, which were in fact introduced because fans were sick of the engineers seemingly driving the cars.
"******* ridiculous," as Kimi would say.
Check out our Sunday gallery, here.