01/11/2015
NEWS STORY
One of the main problems we face today is that last week's United States Grand Prix has spoiled us.
After the tedium of Saturday's eventually aborted qualifying session, against all odds we were served up a race that had us hooked from lights out to flag. We even got the title decided in the process.
Today's race can go one of either two ways. As they head into the unknown, we are either going to see drivers and teams err on the side of caution or we are possibly going to witness another thriller.
In terms of pace the Mercedes clearly has the edge, with Ferrari and Red Bull not too far behind. Williams, though sixth and seventh doesn't look convincing here, while Toro Rosso and Force India do.
Having enjoyed numerous races where there have been precious few DNFs, it is likely that this will change today.
Though the track is improving it is still very slippery, and consequently we are likely to see a number of drivers punished for errors and over enthusiasm.
The thin air, due to the fact that Mexico City is 1.39 miles above sea level, is not only taking its toll on the engines, particularly the turbocharger and cooling, but on the aerodynamics, where the drivers not only suffer even further loss of grip but high speeds - faster than those witnessed at Monza - mean heavy braking.
Then, of course, there is the usual question mark in terms of tyres. "The strategy calculations are complex for a variety of reasons," admits Pirelli, "firstly because of the unfamiliarity with the track, and secondly because every session has been run in disparate conditions, with a high degree of track evolution. This means that it has been difficult to get an accurate picture of the way that the tyres behave."
That said, tyre wear is low on account of the slippery and new surface, but track evolution is still on-going, which has closed the performance gap between the two compounds slightly as more rubber is laid down.
It is likely therefore that today will be about the survival of the fittest.
Sadly, the media has made much of the possibility of an incident involving the Mercedes duo at the first corner, the titles having been decided having left some journos with over-active imaginations and stories to file.
We rather liked Sebastian Vettel's approach, when at yesterday's post-qualifying press conference he said: "Can you make sure you take both of you out so I can go through? Yes? No?"
Assuming the Silver Arrows duo don't get carried away, the slippery track and the numerous tight and twisty turns, which have resulted in an unusually significant amount of bunching, are sure to see a number of the grid's other hot-heads get it wrong, especially on the opening lap.
As we have said before, the new layout is a little disappointing, especially if you recall the old track and the mighty Peraltada, a corner, much like the Parabolica at Monza, that sorted the men from the boys.
On the other hand, we have a track that oozes atmosphere, the roar of the crowd every time a car comes into sight - especially if Sergio Perez at the wheel - giving the event a real gladiatorial feel.
And by the way, were other fans of a certain age disappointed that Valtteri Bottas had never heard of the Rodriguez brothers?
Whilst this write never got to see Riccardo, he did see Pedro in action, and the little Mexican's driver at Brands Hatch in April 1970, at the wheel of the mighty Porsche 917, still gives him goose bumps. Bet Sebastian Vettel has heard of the Hermanos Rodriguez.
While we said Ferrari is looking strong, that mostly applied to the German driver. Kimi Raikkonen has had a bit of a nightmare weekend, and following the 5-place grid penalty after the team changed his gearbox, he has now been docked further places after the team changed his engine and various other components. Though considering he was already starting at the back with the McLaren that was possibly a wise move.
Talking of penalties and McLaren, spare a thought for Jenson Button who has been demoted a whopping 70 places.
Whilst there is one DRS detection zone, there are two activation zones, one of the pit straight and the other between turns 3 and 4.
Tyre choices are medium (prime) and soft (option).
Strategy is complex, with the weather expected to be at the forefront of calculations for the 71-lap race. As wear rates are low, one stop is possible, but two stops could well be quicker. The fastest two-stop strategy is to start on softs, change to softs again on lap 23, then mediums on lap 46.
For a one-stop strategy, it makes no difference to the overall time whether you start on softs or mediums. Those starting on softs should change to mediums on lap 30, while those starting on mediums should change to softs on lap 40.
However, for the past week we have been warned of thunderstorms in the area, and while only FP1 and the very end of qualifying have witnessed rain, it is widely thought the weather gods could play their part in today's race.
The pitlane opens and the drivers begin making their way to the grid, each is cheered to the rafters by the immense crowd.
One of the last out is local hero Perez, the Mexican waving to his adoring fans as he makes his way around.
Air temperature is 22 degrees C, the warmest it's been all weekend, whilst the track temperature is 57 degrees.
Whilst the national anthem sounds as if they are making it up as it goes along, one cannot doubt the passion.
As they head of on the warm-up lap all are sporting the option rubber bar Alonso, Raikkonen and Button who have gone with the primes.
As the make their way around the circuit on the warm-up lap, Perez is told that grip is better due to the warmer temperatures but that engine temp in critical.
They're away. Rosberg leads and heading into T1 Hamilton looks to make a move but doesn't opting instead to cover Vettel. Indeed, the German has a problem, in the form of a puncture after a clash with Ricciardo in T1.
Rosberg leads Hamilton, Kvyat, Ricciardo, Bottas, Verstappen, Massa, Perez, Hulkenberg and Sainz.
As Vettel pits, Alonso says he has a problem, "loss of power", the Spaniard is told to box and retire. Indeed, as Alonso enters the pitlane he delays Vettel.
After 3 laps, with DRS enabled, Bottas is all over Ricciardo whilst Massa is lining up Verstappen.
"Your brakes are starting to overheat already," Raikkonen is told, "is there anything you can do? I know you're battling, but you need to know."
On lap 3, Hamilton posts a new fastest lap (24.889) as he maintains a 1.1s gap to the leader, DRS range
The stewards are investigating the first lap Vettel/Ricciardo clash.
Already 4.4s clear of third-placed Kvyat, Hamilton posts another fastest lap (24.313).
As the stewards announce that no further action is required following that first lap clash, Vettel is clearly unhappy; "where the hell was he trying to go," he says of his former teammate.
"Rear graining isn't getting any worse," reveals Bottas, as countryman Raikkonen passes Ericsson and moves up to 13th.
Despite that radio message, next time around Bottas pits, switching to the primes.
At the end of lap 9, Massa and Hulkenberg both pit, both switching to the harder rubber.
Sainz continues to harry Perez whilst Raikkonen is all over Maldonado. Vettel is also closing in on Stevens at a vast rate of knots.
That said, Maldonado and Stevens both pit, as Ricciardo admits he's struggling with the rear.
As Hamilton posts another fastest lap (24.256), Bottas makes a bold move on Nasr to take 10th.
Grosjean pits at the end of lap 11, as Sainz closes in on Perez.
Asked if he can do 5 more laps on his tyres, Perez says: "At this pace, yes."
As Sainz makes a mistake and gives Perez some breathing space the crowd cheers.
As Massa passes Nasr, Ricciardo is told, "some people are two stopping, but we're going to stick to our plan."
Sainz pits at the end of lap 13, thereby promoting Hulkenberg to tenth.
On lap 14 it is Rosberg who posts the fastest lap, the German stopping the clock at 22.634. Raikkonen is now up to seventh and Vettel thirteenth, the German running at the same pace as the Mercedes duo.
Vettel makes short work of Sainz, despite the fact the Spaniard is on much fresher rubber. What hope Button who is next on the German's 'hit list'.
Believe it or not, Raikkonen, still in seventh, is told he is racing Kvyat for third. Meanwhile, Vettel passes Button, the German taking longer than one might expect.
Further disaster for Vettel as the German spins in T8 and drops back to fifteenth. Replay suggests a technical issue rather than driver error.
At the end of lap 18 Perez pits, rejoining just ahead of Sainz in 10th, however, he is unable to hold off the advancing Toro Rosso.
Lap 19 sees another fastest lap for Rosberg (23.228).
After 20 laps, it's: Rosberg, Hamilton, Kvyat, Ricciardo, Verstappen, Raikkonen, Bottas, Massa, Hulkenberg and Sainz.
"The flat spot is pretty bad," admits Vettel. "I can continue but it's not great."
Kvyat pits at the end of lap 21, the Russian rejoining in fifth ahead of Raikkonen who is under pressure from Bottas. The battle is Titanic but short. The Williams locks-up in T4 and Raikkonen slams the door in T5, the two touch wheels the Ferrari's right-rear going over the left-front of the Williams. Raikkonen is out on the spot but Bottas continues.
"Rear right is broken," Raikkonen is told, just in case he wasn't aware.
"There was no space inside," says Bottas. "He just cut you up," the Finn is reassured.
Ricciardo pits at the ends of lap 24, rejoining in seventh behind the Williams duo.
On lap 26, Rosberg gets the call; "box, box, box." He duly obeys. Verstappen also pits.
22.391s later, Rosberg rejoins the race in second, 19s ahead of third placed Kvyat.
Having investigated, the stewards declare no further action warranted in terms of the Raikkonen/Bottas clash.
Vettel passes Maldonado to take 11th but outbrakes himself and runs wide, handing the position back to the Lotus driver. Elsewhere, Stevens pits.
Hamilton pits at the end of lap 27, rejoining the race 22.304s later in second.
Rossi pits at the end of lap 28, leaving Button as the only driver yet to stop.... And with that 70-place grid penalty he's driven further.
Rosberg is advised that at the end of his stint Hamilton's tyres were as worn as his. At which point the Briton posts a new fastest lap (22.441).
At the end of lap 31, Button finally pits, as Hamilton posts 22.100 in his efforts to close the 2.3s gap to his teammate.
All drivers are running on the prime rubber.
A mistake by Sainz as he runs wide in T4 and thereby gains an advantage on the pursuing Perez, the Spaniard is told to hand the position over which he does in the stadium, the crowd rising to its feet as the Mexican takes 9th.
Vettel makes his second stop of the afternoon at the end of lap 36, rejoining in 14th, behind race leader Rosberg.
Having asked how he is doing, Perez is told that he is racing Verstappen for eighth.
Down in 14th, Vettel is currently the fastest man on track, the German warning of debris at T10.
After 40 laps, it's Rosberg, Hamilton, Kvyat, Bottas, Massa, Ricciardo, Hulkenberg, Verstappen, Perez and Sainz. Ericsson makes his second stop of the day.
Told to let Hamilton through, Vettel, a lap down on the Mercedes driver, says: "I'm quicker than him". "Never mind," he is told, "let him by, let him by or we'll get a penalty."
Hamilton subsequently posts a new fastest lap (21.994).
Perez closes on Verstappen who is 13.5s behind the other Force India driver.
Sainz makes his second stop of the afternoon on lap 43, rejoining in 11th.
About to be told the gap to Hamilton, Rosberg says: "Don't tell me anymore, don't tell me anymore."
Rosberg pits at the end of lap 46, having previously been told he was running to the end. Moments later, Hamilton is told: "We are reverting to Plan B".
It would appear that Mercedes, recalling Vettel's problem at spa, is erring on the side of caution. However, whilst the crew is in the pitlane waiting, the Briton continues.
"Can I ask why," asks Hamilton. "For safety reasons," he is told, "box this lap, box this lap."
"You need to check these tyres, mine feel good," insists the Briton. "They were down to zero at the end of the last stint," he is warned. "You need to come in." He duly obliges, but says "Please check those tyres and let me know. I want some feedback"
He rejoins behind his teammate, still clearly unhappy.
Ricciardo is all over Massa, the Brazilian clearly struggling for grip on those old tyres as he tried to hold on to 5th. Elsewhere, Hamilton posts a 20.853.
Despite the lack of power, compared to the Mercedes, Ricciardo nails Massa in T1 under braking, however, it is Perez passing Verstappen that gets the crowd to its feet. Replay shows the Dutch driver making a mistake.
Game finally over for Vettel, who is off the track and in the barriers at T7. The Safety Car is deployed.
"I crashed again, Turn 7," says Vettel. "Sorry."
Making the most of the Safety Car, Kvyat, Ricciardo, Massa, Hulkenberg and Ericsson pit. Surprisingly, Bottas doesn't.
Verstappen pits next time around, as do Sainz, Nasr, Maldonado and Bottas.
Despite Vettel's admission, replay suggests his accident wasn't driver error.
After 53 laps, behind the Safety Car, it's: Rosberg, Hamilton, Kvyat, Bottas, Ricciardo, Massa, Hulkenberg, Perez, Verstappen and Grosjean.
"If we pit now, do we lose places," asks Perez. "We would lose out to Verstappen," he is warned. The Mexican stays put.
"Use those ten car lengths," Rosberg is advised.
Button warns that Nasr, who is ahead of him, has a brake fire.
The Safety Car pulls off at the end of lap 57, Rosberg holding his lead and his nerve. Bottas however, catches Kvyat off guard to take third.
Button was right, Nasr has pulled off track with smoke pouring from the rear of his car. "My brakes are finished," he admits.
Replay shows both Mercedes struggling for grip and riding the kerbs at the re=start.
"Both these Red Bulls are vulnerable," Massa, in sixth, is advised, teammate Bottas having demonstrated that in terms of Kvyat.
Button is told that Perez is on "forty-one lap old tyres, he's become a chicane, there could be some action here". The crowd will not be happy.
Grosjean closes on Verstappen who is 1.2s down on Perez, Maldonado less than a second behind his Lotus teammate. Indeed the Venezuelan runs wide in T12 and somehow manages to keep it out of the barriers.
"Eight more laps to go," Massa is told, "let's keep creeping up on these Red Bulls."
Despite the age of his tyres, Perez is pulling away from Verstappen, but remains 4.6s down on his Force India teammate.
As he posts a new fastest lap (20.272), closing to within 1.2s, Hamilton complains: "It's so hard to follow here". Elsewhere, Ricciardo is told: "It's difficult, but we need to try and get DRS".
Massa is advised that Ricciardo is struggling with his tyres.
Oh dear, Maldonado is hot on the heels of his Lotus teammate.
Rosberg begins his final lap, the German 1.6s clear of his Mercedes teammate.
The German takes the flag, the twelfth win of his career, "excellent job", he is told, and so it was.
Hamilton takes second, ahead of Bottas, Kvyat, Ricciardo, Massa, Hulkenberg, Perez, Verstappen and Grosjean.
Maldonado is eleventh, ahead of Ericsson, Sainz, Button, Rossi and Stevens.
We said could go one of two ways, sadly it was the 'processional route', though no disrespect to Rosberg and his colleagues.
Sadly, because it was a new track, and also due to the concerns over reliability, the tears appear to have erred on the side of caution, that goes for the tyres also.
The championship lost, Rosberg must now concentrate on the runner-up spot, a necessity really when you consider the superiority of his car.
A strong performance from Hamilton also, though one wonders how the team will react to his questioning of its strategy.
For Ferrari it really is the Day of the Dead, the Italian outfit's first double DNF since 2006. It remains to be seen whether Vettel's crash was down to the driver, whilst some will say Raikkonen's retirement following the Bottas clash was payback for Austin.
Williams will be delighted with third, though perhaps Massa needed a bigger kick up the rear, as they said, the Bulls were vulnerable.
And talking of Red Bull, those engines, and those in the back of the Toro Rossos, didn't do too badly.
Seventh and eighth was probably the best force India could expect, as was tenth for Lotus, all there benefiting f4rom Ferrari's day to forget.
Great to have Mexico back on the schedule, the fans being the stars. However, when we come back in 2016 can we be a little less conservative in our approach.
Check out our Sunday gallery, here.