07/06/2015
NEWS STORY
Check our Twitter feed and you'll see that at 16:28 (BST) we tweeted: "150+ mins before 'kick-off' and we're predicting @ValtteriBottas' maiden win. Just have that feeling #F1 #CanadaGP"
We can't explain it, like we said it's just a feeling we've had all weekend. That said, he's got to get this first win sometime so where better than the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve. Though if our prediction proves correct let's just hope Valtteri is able to build on it as opposed to one of our all-time F1 favourites Jean Alesi.
In the same way that we feel Bottas is in for a good day, likewise we fear more pain for Mercedes. All weekend when he's been hot Lewis has been really hot, but along the way there have been so many niggly little mistakes.
Furthermore, despite what he might say publicly, he will not have forgotten the nightmare of two weeks ago. Who would.
Nico Rosberg will be there, but in the same way it is hard to forget the events of a fortnight back, it is similarly difficult to erase last year's race from the back of the mind. This is not a circuit ideally suited to the Mercedes.
With Sebastian Vettel starting in Quebec, Kimi Raikkonen has an ideal opportunity to get Maurizio Arrivabene off his back. All weekend the Finn has looked his old self, and surely deserves a good result. At the same time, let's not write-off Vettel, indeed, let's hope the TV director keeps us fully informed of the German's progress.
Like Ferrari, Williams had a day of mixed fortunes yesterday, for while Bottas starts fourth, teammate Felipe Masa lines up 15th on the grid - he actually qualified 17th, behind Vettel, but there were so, so many penalties to be handed out.
The Williams will be strong here - all Mercedes powered cars will be strong here - so providing the Brazilian has one of his better, less emotional, days, he could still leave here with some points.
The stars of qualifying have to be the Lotus duo, Romain Grosjean and Pastor Maldonado. Providing they can stay out of trouble - we're talking to you Mr Maldonator - the Enstone team could leave here fifth in the constructors' standings.
The Force India duo also impressed, and what better way to celebrate the impending arrival of the much anticipated B-car (at Silverstone) than to sign off the VJM08 with a decent points haul.
Splitting the force India drivers were the Red Bull pair, Daniil Kvyat insisting that recent criticism from the Markonator has done him good, taken him out of his comfort zone. However, it was look on teammate Daniel Ricciardo's face that said it all, the popular Australian, for the first time in living memory, not sporting that infectious grin.
At Toro Rosso all hopes appear to rest on the young shoulders of Carlo Sainz. His teammate, Max Verstappen, already handicapped by the 5-place grid penalty incurred in Monaco, has picked up a further ten-place penalty after becoming the first driver to use a fifth power unit, and even has a 10s time penalty for good measure. Indeed, the only punishment not meted out to the youngster was to write five hundred times, "I wish I had a Mercedes power unit in my car, and I wish my car was a Mercedes, or Williams or Lotus."
As for Sainz, his young shoulders are more than capable of bringing some points back to Faenza, more than capable.
The best bit of pace from Sauber this weekend was the speed with which Felipe Nasr's car was repaired following his FP3 crash. Both drivers did well to get into Q2 but the Swiss team is the first to admit that there is much to work on.
In what has been a momentous week for Manor - new technical staff, including Bob Bell, a reserve driver and a sponsor, it would be entirely wrong to rain on the team's parade. Instead let's hope the team can get both cars home again, and possibly even benefit from one of those freak results this circuit regularly serves up.
As for McLaren, what can one say. Poor Jenson didn't even get to run in qualifying, and to add insult to injury has to serve a drive-through (within three laps of the start) after Honda changed the MGU-H and turbo on his car. Yet still he keeps smiling.
Teammate Fernando Alonso was clearly giving everything in qualifying, but it is clear the team, and its engine partner, has a long, long way to go.
While the weather gods are unlikely to have a say in today's race, we know from experience that we don't need a downpour in order to turn this rain on its head. With high demands on the engine, brakes and fuel consumption, anything can - and usually does - happen. And then there are those unforgiving walls, not least the daddy of them all... the Wall of Champions.
To further spice up the day we have the obstacle course that is the final chicane (turns 13/14). It is clear that Charlie Whiting and his pals are tasking special interest in how drivers negotiate this little complex of tarmac and rubber, and we can expect a number of drivers to be punished today. Indeed, such is the gusto with which the stewards have been approaching their work this week it is almost as though they are on commission.
Finally, let's not forget that it was at this circuit (in 1973) that a Safety Car was first deployed, and with further appearance in 11 of the last 16 Canadian Grands Prix, it's likely that Bernd Maylander will find himself leading yet another Grand Prix at some stage today.
A one-stop strategy looks most likely, even though two stops also viable. A two-stop strategy is likely to see a driver start on supersoft (option), change to supersoft again on lap 15, then soft (prime) from lap 40. A number of variations on this theme are also possible, including running the soft in the middle stint.
Unlike Monaco, since 2005, only four pole-sitters have gone on to win the race.
Over the years we have seen a number of first corner incidents here, and while the boys up front have been pretty well behaved and disciplined this year, today we see the likes of Vettel and Massa starting alongside the Manors and (god forgive us for saying this Ron) McLarens. Furthermore, let's not forget that a certain Mr Maldonado is starting from his best grid position of the year thus far.
The pitlane opens and one by one the drivers make their way to the grid.
A late problem for Lotus, the team bleeding the brakes on Grosjean's car on the grid. Brakes, of course, being tested to the absolute limit here.
As the field heads off on the warm-up lap, the air temperature is 21 degrees C, whilst the track temperature is 39 degrees.
All are on options, bar Massa, Merhi, Stevens, Verstappen and Button who ware on primes (soft).
A curious message to the team from Hamilton, the Briton thanking the crew for its support and hard work.
They're away. Raikkonen closes on Rosberg but is unable to make a move. All get through the first series of corners with no problem. Good starts from Vettel and Verstappen.
At the end of lap 1 Button pits to serve his penalty. Hamilton leads from Rosberg, Raikkonen, Bottas Grosjean, Hulkenberg, Maldonado, Kvyat, Ricciardo and Perez.
After two laps Hamilton leads his teammate by 1.3s Raikkonen all over the second Mercedes. Vettel is up to 16th, one place ahead of Verstappen. Masa passes Sainz, Vettel also nailing the Spaniard.
Alonso and Massa battle behind Ericsson, sadly it's only for twelfth position. Vettel joins in the fun.
Vettel out-brakes Alonso at the hairpin but over cooks it hands back the position. In the straight that follows he leaves the McLaren for dead. Massa continues to hound Ericsson.
At the other end of the field, Rosberg posts a new fastest lap (19.056) as he opens a 1.6s gap to Raikkonen.
Having lost out at the start, Maldonado is now all over the back of Hulkenberg. Massa and Vettel still unable to pass Ericsson.
On lap 6 Hamilton posts a new fastest lap (18.697), as Ericsson fends off Massa who is under attack from Vettel. All this for eleventh.
Button, in twentieth, is currently 3.5s down on Stevens, despite that drive-through.
Unable to pass Massa, Vettel dives into the pits at the end of lap 7. However, there's an issue with the left rear. He rejoins in last position. Unclear why the German pitted so early, a puncture?
Heart in the mouth stuff from Masa and Ericsson through turns 1 and 2, the Swede and Brazilian coming oh so close. Finally, the Williams is through. Superb stuff from both drivers.
"Nice job Felipe," Massa is told, "next job is Perez". Hope Ericsson got similar encouragement.
Vettel is hot, the German having passed Merhi, Stevens and button and now chasing Verstappen who is 14.7s up the road. The four-time champion posts a new fastest lap (18.645), as Verstappen makes a bold move on Nasr to take 15th.
Kvyat (currently eighth) is warned that he has a hot rear caliper. "Beware," he is told.
Wow, Hollywood royalty, Al Pacino is spotted by the cameras. Anyone remember him in the awful bobby Deerfield?
After 12 laps, Hamilton leads Rosberg by 3s, with Raikkonen a further 2.4as down the road. Bottas is 2s down on his countryman but 7.2s ahead of Grosjean.
Hulkenberg complains that his left-front "looks pretty ugly".
Having had such a hard time passing Ericsson, Masa absolutely sails past Ricciardo to take tenth.
Asked about his tyres, Bottas says he is "losing a little bit of traction".
Another fastest lap from Hamilton, the world champion posting 18.051 as he extends his lead to 3.6s. A little further back, Vettel has closed to within 1.7s of Verstappen.
Maldonado pits at the end of lap 17, rejoining in13th. He is only the second driver to stop.
Verstappen passes Alonso for 14th, leaving Vettel next up to pass the Spaniard. Masa unable to pass Kvyat.
Alonso is not making it easy for Vettel, the German makes a move into the final chicane but the McLaren driver is having none of it, the Ferrari having to back right off. The German subsequently says he "touched Alonso". Elsewhere, Massa has passed Kvyat for 7th.
A lap later, Vettel makes the same move, and again the Spaniard bars his way. However, the German nails him on the pit straight.
After 21 laps Raikkonen is clearly losing ground to Rosberg, the Ferrari now 5.6s down on the Mercedes. Bottas is just 4.1s behind the Ferrari.
Maldonado passes Ericsson to take 11th as Vettel makes short work of Verstappen at the infamous final chicane, and shortly after his Toro Rosso teammate at the same corner.
As Vettel closes on Ericsson, Ricciardo pits, the Red Bull driver rejoining in 16th.
Alonso really unhappy in the McLaren, the Spaniard finally making his feelings clear when asked to save fuel. "I don't want," he replies. Told he will be in trouble if he doesn't save fuel, the Spaniard says: "We're in trouble now!" A rare outburst from the two-time world champion, his frustration finally spilling over.
Raikkonen pits at the end of lap 26, rejoining in fourth behind Bottas. Shortly after he spins at the hairpin, allowing Grosjean through. However, the Frenchman subsequently pits.
"It's the same as last year," shouts Raikkonen, "clearly something on the SF15-T having caught his out.
At the end of lap 28 Bottas pits, as does Hulkenberg and Kvyat. The Williams driver rejoins ahead of Raikkonen courtesy of the Ferrari driver's spin.
Next time around Hamilton pits, the Briton rejoining in second 23.708s later. Meanwhile, teammate Rosberg has out-braked himself at the hairpin, he subsequently pits.
As the German rejoins in second, 23.321s later, Vettel passes Maldonado to take 7th, the Lotus driver having to use the T13 run off to avoid a collision.
Despite his mistake, Rosberg is only 2.3s down on his teammate, but 16.2s clear of third-placed Bottas. Raikkonen is 2s down on the Williams. Massa is fifth, 12.5s behind Raikkonen, but still to stop.
Alonso pits at the end of lap 32, leaving Verstappen, Button, Stevens and Merhi as the only other drivers still to pit.
A great move by Kvyat as he nails Verstappen in the final chicane. Meanwhile, Rosberg appears to be closing on Hamilton.
While Hamilton posts a PB in S1, Rosberg responds with a purple in S2, closing to 1.1s of the leader.
Massa, still to stop, is now under pressure from Grosjean and Vettel, the Williams driver clearly struggling for grip. Elsewhere, courtesy of DRS, Perez blasts past Verstappen to take 11th.
Vettel makes his second stop at the end of lap 35, the German taking on a set of primes. He rejoins in ninth and looking good for a decent points haul.
Ooh Ooh! The cameras pick up on a groundhog which is standing on the track. Thankfully he runs (!?!) to safety.
Rosberg is told to manage his brakes for the next ten laps before he attacks his teammate.
On fresh rubber, Vettel posts a new fastest lap (17.481) as Massa pits. The Brazilian rejoins in ninth, behind the Ferrari but ahead of Kvyat. Verstappen remains the only driver yet to pit.
As Vettel posts another fastest lap (17.299), Kvyat is told to be careful and that Massa has a long way to go on his options. Elsewhere, Ricciardo takes a detour through the run-off at T13.
Raikkonen makes his second stop a the end of lap 40, the Finn rejoining (on options) in fourth. Teammate Vettel continues to set a blistering pace, closing to within 0.3s of Hulkenberg.
Hamilton is told that Rosberg is OK as far as his fuel use is concerned but more critical on brakes. The manner in which the message is relayed suggests the situation could be reversed for the Briton.
Now on fresh rubber, Raikkonen goes quickest (16.987) but is 17s down on third-placed Bottas.
Having battled for a couple of laps, Vettel makes a move on Hulkenberg at the final chicane. They appear to touch, the Force India spins, and the Ferrari is through. Massa also passes the stricken Force India.
"Where is Hulkenberg, where is Hulkenberg," asks Vettel, "I did not touch him". Indeed, he didn't, replay shows Hulkenberg spun after hitting the kerb. The German subsequently complains that Vettel didn't leave him enough room.
Out front, after 45 laps, Rosberg is within DRS range of his Mercedes teammate. The German is told he is doing a good job with his brakes but must continue to nurse them in order to launch a late attack on Hamilton.
At the end of lap 46, Alonso becomes the first retirement after complaining of a loss of power.
After 47 laps, it's: Hamilton, Rosberg (1.1), Bottas (22), Raikkonen (13.3), Grosjean (6.9), Maldonado (2), Vettel (6.4), Massa (6.8), Hulkenberg (6.9) and Kvyat (5.7).
The stewards say that no further action is warranted in terms of the Vettel/Hulkenberg incident.
Grosjean pits and clips the front of Stevens car as he enters the pitlane. The Lotus crew are caught off-guard not expecting the Frenchman. Despite it clearly being his fault, Grosjean complains "he hit me, he hit me!"
Stevens is clearly unhappy, telling his crew that every time he passes the Manor he does so in a similar fashion.
The stewards clearly agree with Stevens, handing Grosjean a 5s time penalty.
Sainz makes short work of Ricciardo, the Australian scoring his maiden F1 win here a year ago.
"Raikkonen will catch you just after the race," Bottas is told, "you're doing a good job."
Despite his best efforts, Maldonado cannot hold off Vettel who blast past the Lotus to take fifth. Elsewhere, Grosjean and Perez are battling for tenth, the Frenchman finally getting through.
More misery for McLaren as Button is told to pit, the team needing to retire his car.
"Everything looks good," Hamilton is told, "just keep plugging away." The Briton is subsequently told to "lift and coast" in anticipation of Rosberg's attack. "How much," he asks. "About 50 metres," comes the reply.
Verstappen all over Ericsson as they battle for 14th and Grosjean all over Kvyat.
With 10 laps remaining, Vettel is 10.6s down on his Ferrari teammate.
Grosjean is told that he needs to pass Kvyat, the Frenchman, of course, carrying that 5s time penalty.
Merhi drives into the pits to retire, his, and the team's, first DNF of the season.
Maldonado opts not to put up too much of a fight and allows Massa through to take sixth.
When Rosberg asks how "the other car" is for fuel, he is told that he cannot be given such information.
With 5 laps remaining, it's: Hamilton, Rosberg (2.6), Bottas (31.9), Raikkonen (6.7), Vettel (8.6), Massa (8.3), Maldonado (4.2), Hulkenberg (20.5), Kvyat (7.8) and Grosjean (1).
As Hamilton locks-up at the hairpin, Rosberg is now 3.4s down on his teammate. No sign of that late attack.
As he begins his final lap, Hamilton is reminded to lift and coast. In the Mercedes garage, Niki Lauda blows Toto Wolff a kiss.
Hamilton takes the flag, Rosberg crossing the line 2.2s later. Bottas is third, giving Williams its first podium of 2015, ahead of Raikkonen, Vettel, Massa, Maldonado, Hulkenberg, Kvyat and Grosjean.
Perez is eleventh, ahead of Sainz, Ricciardo, Ericsson, Verstappen, Nasr and Stevens.
Overall, a disappointing race, certainly in terms of action at the front of the field. Indeed, one wonders just how much radio activity there was between the Mercedes drivers and the pit-wall, the team clearly not wanting any issues in the wake of Monaco.
On the other hand, the 38.3s gap to third-placed Bottas tells us all we need to know in terms of Mercedes advantage.
Further down the field there was plenty of action, a superb performance from Vettel and that epic scrap between Ericsson and Massa.
And so, back to Europe, kicking off with the beautiful Red Bull Ring.
As for today, all-in-all about as sleep inducing as.... well, Bobby Deerfield.
Check out our Sunday gallery, here.