09/11/2014
NEWS STORY
We know, oh boy do we know, that the 2014 title cannot be won here today, certainly not with another of Bernie's brainwaves - "Hang on, lads; I've got a great idea," as Charlie Croker (Michael Caine) once said - waiting for us in Abu Dhabi.
But it can be lost.
All too often we've seen races, even titles decided at the first corner - though back here in 2008 it was the final corner where the championship was won and lost - a lesson the Mercedes duo would do well to heed, especially considering their history.
However it isn't simply the guy in the other Mercedes that Nico Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton have to worry about this afternoon, there's the Williams pair behind them, not to mention the Red Bulls, McLarens and Ferraris.
Of course, other than that first corner - an accident waiting to happen come rain or shine - there is the question of what the weather gods have in store for us and, in turn, tyre degradation.
Despite the threat of rain every single session has been held on a dry track, even if the kerbs and Astroturf run-offs were a little damp, and Rosberg has been quickest in all of them.
The latest forecasts suggest a little bit of everything, what we have come to know as missed conditions, which should certainly add to the spectacle.
With no wet running the drivers will be venturing into the unknown, though with almost all of them complaining of "massive degradation" to the dry tyres we should be in for some fun either way.
According to Pirelli, a three-stop strategy is theoretically the fastest. However, this means that traffic is a real issue - so this strategy is a risk for anything other than the very fastest cars.
The fastest theoretical strategy is: a short stint on soft before changing to medium; medium again on lap 21 and a final stint on the medium from lap 46. A two-stop strategy is almost as quick and carries a lot smaller risk of hold-ups: start on soft, change to medium on lap 13, then medium again on lap 42.
Those choosing to start on the medium have another two-stop option: change to the medium again on lap 29, then try to make up time at the end of the race by switching to soft on lap 58. Most teams will probably start with the idea of doing a two-stop strategy, but maintain the flexibility to do a three-stopper if necessary.
Then again, if it rains, as seems highly likely, if only for part of the race, that all goes out of the window.
Assuming it does remain dry, the Mercedes are hot favourites once again, and while Rosberg has dominated every session here it is teammate Hamilton who comes off the back of a run of five straight wins.
Then again, the Williams duo has looked very strong here and almost matching the silver Arrows for pace indeed, despite two mistakes in Q3 Bottas' best time was still only 0.282s off pole. For once, the Mercedes pair could have a genuine race on their hands.
Jenson Button is one of a number of drivers yet to secure - or should that be retain - a seat for next season, though according to widespread speculation he already knows that he will be ousted at McLaren in favour of Fernando Alonso. Therefore, on the back of another fine qualifying effort, this is the popular Briton's last chance to impress prospective employers and even Ron Dennis, though teammate Kevin Magnussen will be equally buoyed up. That said, if conditions do become changeable what better opportunity for Jenson to impress.
For once Sebastian Vettel appears to have the wedge on teammate Daniel Ricciardo, though it must be said that the German appears to be one of several keen to see the back of the season. While the Red Bull has looked fairly strong here it is no match for the Mercedes or even Williams.
While Kimi Raikkonen has looked far more settled with the handling of the F14T this weekend, he could only manage tenth in Q3, two spots behind his teammate. Already surpassed by Williams, the Maranello outfit appears to be under increasing pressure from McLaren.
Toro Rosso has been uncharacteristically out of sorts this weekend, not helped by Daniil Kvyat's engine penalty from Austin, and this must give a glimpse of hope to Sauber as the Swiss team seeks its first point of the season.
Though Lotus was showing signs of improvement in the wake of Pastor Maldonado's points finish in America, it all seems to have fallen apart since, whilst Force India's sudden drop in form continues.
Of course, we talk of Button and others facing the possibility that this is their penultimate Grand Prix, but that applies to a number of teams also. F1 was already grieving, what with two of its own - Michael Schumacher and Jules Bianchi - fighting for their lives, but this is something we can do without. Sadly, we can see both sides of the argument but to the rest of the world the sight of multi-millionaires pleading poverty and fighting for a bigger slice of the multi-billion dollar cake must make the 'sport' appear even more self-centred than it was already perceived.
Indeed, in the build-up to the start there is talk that the sport is already planning on Red Bull and Ferrari entering three cars in 2015 ahead of a move to customer cars in 2016 which is when Haas enters the sport.
That said, asked on the grid about third cars next season he denies an agreement has been made; "we can't even agree on when the next meeting is," he tells Sky's Martin Brundle.
Again, assuming it's a dry race, this Grand Prix is one of the most unpredictable of the year, with a 70 percent chance of a Safety Car.
The pitlane opens. With half-an-hour to go before the start it is bright and sunny.
As in Sochi and Austin the drivers assemble at the front of the grid for the anthem.
As the field heads off on the warm-up lap, the air temperature is 23 degrees C, whilst the track temperature is 47 degrees.
Adrian Sutil is starting from the pitlane after his team made a "small technical change" to his car. He had qualified thirteenth.
All are on options bar Hulkenberg, Sutil, Grosjean and Kvyat who all start on the prime.
The field heads off on the parade lap as Mercedes warns of early stops due to tyre degradation in the heat.
"It felt slightly under-engaged," replies Hamilton when asked for feedback on his practice start.
They're away. Strong starts from both Mercedes and the Williams, Massa locking up slightly. All through the Senna-S cleanly. However, poor starts from both Red Bull drivers.
At the end of an incident free opening lap, it's: Rosberg, Hamilton, Massa, Bottas, Button, Magnussen, Alonso, Vettel, Ricciardo and Gutierrez.
Massa is warned that the surface is slippery, "possibly oil", in T2.
After a strong start, Alonso is under pressure from the Red Bull duo, teammate Raikkonen down in 11th.
Already, Bottas is complaining of graining to his rears. That's after just two laps.
As Rosberg guilds a 1.2sd lead, Hamilton posts a new fastest lap (15.610).
Maldonado is the first driver to pit, the Lotus driver stopping for fresh prime rubber at the end of lap 4.
Next time around Massa pits, he too swaps to the prime rubber. Perez stops also.
At the end of lap 6, Bottas and Button pit, as does Vettel.
Rosberg pits at the end of lap 7, as does Magnussen, Alonso and Ricciardo.
Meanwhile, Massa is handed a stop/go for speeding in the pitlane.
Hamilton stops at the end of lap 8, as does Raikkonen.
Hamilton rejoins behind Grosjean in fifth.
Hulkenberg leads, ahead of Kvyat, Rosberg, Grosjean and Hamilton, though the Briton soon passes the Lotus. Behind Grosjean it's Massa, Bottas, Sutil, Button and Magnussen.
Button goes around the outside of Sutil in T1 to take 8th place. Classic Button move.
At the start of lap 13, Rosberg passes Hulkenberg to regain the lead, the Force India driver still to stop. Hamilton remains third ahead of Kvyat and Massa who has yet to serve his penalty.
Hamilton, who has been told to watch his rear tyre temperatures, finally passes Hulkenberg at the start of lap 16. Rosberg is now 2.316s ahead.
Hulkenberg finally pits, at the end of lap 16, as Massa passes Kvyat to take 4th. Elsewhere, Vettel is told to drop back from the rear of Alonso's car in order to save his tyres.
"There's a blister on my front right," says Hamilton, while Rosberg moans about "oversteer".
Kvyat pits at the end of lap 18, as does Sutil. It's a long, long stop for the German who drops to last in the process.
Out front Rosberg posts another fastest lap (15.203) as he maintains a 2.3s lead over Hamilton. Massa, still to serve that penalty, is a further 5.7s down the road.
After 20 laps, sixth-placed Grosjean is the only driver still to stop.
Despite that blister, Hamilton posts a new fastest lap (15.120), as Ricciardo is warned that degradation is worse than expected. The Australian is currently tenth.
Grosjean appears to want to pit at the end of lap 22, but his path is blocked by Magnussen who has the inside line as he passes the Lotus to take 6th.
One would have thought that next time around Grosjean would pit but no, as a result he loses out to Alonso and then Vettel.
As Hamilton posts a new fastest lap (15.024) on lap 24, Grosjean finally pits, as does Vettel. Massa is also told to "box", at which point he will serve his penalty.
His penalty served and still on prime rubber, Massa rejoins the race in 13th.
Rosberg pits next time around, at the end of lap 26, rejoining in third. Bottas and Magnussen also stop. The Finn appears to have a problem with his seatbelt resulting in another long stop, he rejoins in 15th.
Out front Hamilton bangs in a 14.303, as Button, Ricciardo and Gutierrez all pit.
A mistake sees Hamilton spin at T4, the Briton subsequently heading to the pits. He rejoins in second 7.217s down on his teammate. Raikkonen is now up to third, ahead of Hulkenberg and Massa.
"All is not lost," Hamilton is told, "stay calm, and manage your tyres in this stint".
Perez gets a stop/go for speeding in the pitlane.
Button passes Kvyat for sixth, the Briton having a good race. On the other hand, despite that penalty it's all worked out quite well for Massa who is just 19s behind the race leader.
"Be aware your teammate is pushing quite hard," Rosberg is told, "so be aware and manage the gap."
After 32 laps everyone is on the prime rubber. All but Hulkenberg, Raikkonen, Kvyat, Grosjean and Sutil have made two stops.
Awaiting the inevitable call for "hammer-time", Hamilton warns that he has enough for one hot lap on these tyres. Rosberg maintains a 5.453s lead.
Sutil, who had dropped to last following his nightmare pit stop, is now up to 14th.
Raikkonen makes his second stop at the end of lap 35 but it's a nightmare stop for the Finn as the front jack fails. He rejoins in thirteenth.
Next time around it is Hulkenberg who pits, promoting Massa to third. Elsewhere, Vettel gets mighty close to Kvyat as he passes the Russian down the inside at T1 to take fifth.
After 37 laps, just over half-distance, it's: Rosberg, Hamilton, Massa, Button, Vettel, Kvyat, Magnussen, Alonso, Ricciardo and Bottas.
Kvyat pits at the end of lap 39, as Ricciardo complains that his "left front brake has gone". He immediately slows, dropping down the field, and heads back to the pits and seeming retirement. Sutil also pits.
As the Red Bull crew inspect Ricciardo's car before deciding to send him out again, Hamilton closes to within 3.171s of his teammate.
Replay indicates a suspension failure for Ricciardo rather than a brake issue.
A bold move by Hulkenberg on the inside of Bottas sees the Finn run wide, caught off guard the Williams driver is subsequently passed by Raikkonen. Bottas subsequently pits, rejoining in 16th after a very long stop during which debris is removed from his front and rear wings.
Alonso is all over the back of sixth-placed Magnussen. The Spaniard attempts to go around the outside in T1 but the Dane is having none of it. A few corners later however, the two-time champ finally nails the McLaren rookie... and possible 2015 teammate.
"We need at least six more timed laps," third-placed Massa is told. Elsewhere, a third stop for Maldonado.
After 46 laps, Sutil is the only driver on options.
Vergne, currently 13th, pits at the end of lap 47 as Kvyat nails Perez in T1 to take 11th.
Magnussen and Perez both pit at the end of lap 48. The Dane rejoins in 11th.
Next time around Vettel pits, the world champion rejoining in 8th. Gutierrez also stops.
Rosberg makes his third stop at the end of lap 50, as does Sutil. The Mercedes driver rejoins the race in second as Button and Massa also head into the pitlane. The Brazilian accidentally heads into Button's slot before realising the error of his ways... thereby slipping to 5th.
Hamilton pits at the end of lap 51, rejoining 0.503s behind his teammate.
As Alonso pits - at the end of lap 52 - Hamilton is right behind Rosberg. After last week, the German must stamp his authority on his teammate. Indeed, Rosberg posts a new fastest lap (13.961).
Much to the delight of the crowd, and his Dad, Massa passes Hulkenberg to take third (again).
"Protect your right rear Lewis, it's getting hot," the world championship leader is advised.
Another fastest lap from Rosberg (13.937) as Hamilton continues to apply the pressure.
To add to Rosberg's problems, there is a train of backmarkers ahead. The first car they need to pick off is Vergne, then Maldonado and Bottas.
Bottas almost stops in his efforts allow the battling Mercedes duo through.
Kvyat and Grosjean both pit at the end of lap 60 as Button makes a great move on Raikkonen in T1 only to lose the place again when he slightly overcooks it. The McLaren driver eventually nails the Finn, as does Vettel, who spots a great opportunity, thereby demoting the Ferrari driver to sixth.
On lap 62 Hamilton posts a new fastest lap (13.555) as he closes to within 0.757s of his teammate. The gap like a yo-yo as it opens and closes.
After 63 laps, it's: Rosberg, Hamilton, Massa, Button, Vettel, Raikkonen, Alonso, Magnussen, Hulkenberg and Bottas.
A great scrap for sixth between the two Ferraris, but Raikkonen doesn't get the 'he is faster than you' call.
Game over for Grosjean who is told to stop his car at T10, thus becoming the second retirement of the day.
As Alonso in unable to find a way past his teammate, it is clear that the Spaniard's relationship with the Maranello outfit is at an end, he is no longer the favoured son.
Finally, at the start of lap 69, Alonso sweeps past his teammate on the approach to T1 to take sixth.
Out front, with two laps remaining, Rosberg maintains a 0.975s lead, he and his teammate trading fastest sector times.
Rosberg takes the flag, and thereby takes seven points out of his teammate's championship lead.
Massa takes a very popular third, the final podium place, ahead of Button, Vettel, Alonso, Raikkonen, Hulkenberg, Magnussen and Bottas.
Kvyat is eleventh, ahead of Maldonado, Vergne, Gutierrez, Perez and Sutil.
Curiously, Hamilton's engineer apologises to the Briton over the radio, "sorry about the stop," he says, though to the rest of us it appeared to be Lewis' mistake during 'hammer time' that cost him.
The gap now down to 17 points, the title fight heads to Abu Dhabi.
We can't wait.
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