27/10/2013
NEWS STORY
While we know we cannot rely on the weather gods to spice things up today, not unless the circuit is suddenly shrouded in smog at half-distance, we do know that tyre strategy is going to be key.
Whilst the option tyres are clearly quicker, they drop off after just a couple of laps and consequently nobody really wants to be on them today. With this is mind we saw the strategy begin to come into play yesterday and, as one might expect, some have already got it wrong.
The biggest casualty in qualifying was Romain Grosjean, his team's gamble on a single run on options totally backfiring and leaving the Frenchman starting from seventeenth on the grid.
Elsewhere we saw Red Bull and Ferrari put their drivers on different strategies, a gamble that will either pay off or fail over the next ninety minutes.
Ever the gamblers when it comes to tyre strategy, McLaren has both its drivers on the prime rubber, as the Woking outfit seeks to maintain its advantage over Force India.
According to Pirelli, two stops is theoretically the quickest approach to the 60-lap race, but this very much depends on the car and other race factors, such as traffic.
The optimal two-stop strategy is to start on the soft, change to the medium on lap two, and a final stint on the medium from lap 28. However, an alternative two-stop strategy is to start on the medium, change to the medium again on lap 28 and then to the soft on lap 57.
On the two previous occasions on which the race has been held the Safety Car has not made an appearance, nor have there been any serious incidents, even on the first lap. While there have been minor incidents in T1 it is T3 that is regarded as the corner most likely to see a pile-up but that too has been pretty much incident free in the last two years.
An incident early in this year's event could turn all that tyre strategy stuff on its head, for the early appearance of the Safety Car would allow Vettel and others to shed their options and get on with the race.
While a number of drivers are out of position, Vettel must be hoping that Grosjean - who starts behind Vergne, Bottas and Gutierrez - gets up to his old ways.
By the way, and we don't want to depress you, but not only has Vettel won both previous races he has led every single lap.
While most concentrate on the title(s) which should be wrapped up today, it is the battle(s) behind that we should really be focussing on.
The Constructors' Championship is not only about money it is about prestige, and Ferrari faces the real prospect of finishing behind Mercedes and Lotus in this year's title fight, while, having leapfrogged Toro Rosso, the ever improving Sauber has its eyes set on Force Indi and possibly even McLaren.
Ron Dennis famously said that to finish second was to be the first of the losers however, a number of drivers out there today will be happy to finish fourth, fifth or sixth, what with only a handful of seats for 2014 actually filled.
With three more races remaining this is the time when drivers can stake their claims on those all important seats... or blow their chances entirely.
In a late move, and with its eye clearly on safety, Pirelli has called on the teams to limit its running on its tyres today, asking them not to run more than 15 laps on the options and 35 on the primes. A sort of strategy by proxy, enforcing teams to pit and also punishing those teams able to extract more from their rubber.
Thankfully the FIA does not agree with the move and is not changing the rules.
Of course, on a similar strategy to Alonso, and starting a couple of spots before him, Mark Webber could do much to aid his Red Bull teammate's title bid today... but honestly...
While Vettel has an ominous record here and has topped the timesheets in every session, one cannot help but feel that teammate Webber looks remarkably confident. Then again, he has before.
With Grosjean so far back, Raikkonen has the chance to re-take the spotlight coming off the back of his podium finishes in Singapore and Korea.
Mercedes looks strong though Lewis Hamilton has not really convinced this weekend, appearing to remain in the shadows for much of it.
While Felipe Massa will continue to set out his stall for those teams interested in acquiring his services, let's not write off teammate Alonso who nearly always manages to pull something out of the hat.
With excellent results in Korea and Japan we can expect another strong from Hulkenberg while one hopes that the McLaren duo will not cause problems for one another... they certainly have history.
The battle just outside the top ten should be ferocious though one cannot help but feel that the mid-season change to the tyre compounds has seriously damaged Force India. At the very back the battle for tenth between Marussia and Caterham continues.
The pitlane opens and one by one the drivers head off to work.
Of course all the tyre strategy we've looked at thus far is based on the leading ten, whose strategy we know from Q3, but what of those behind? Soon all will be revealed.
As the field prepares to head off on the warm-up lap, the air temperature is 30 degrees C, while the track temperature is 33 degrees.
Of the leading ten, Webber, Alonso and the McLarens are on prime. Of those behind, Ricciardo, Sutil, Bottas, Gutierrez and Chilton are also on the harder rubber.
There are two DRS zones at, the detection point of the first is 16m before Turn 3 and its activation point is 350m after Turn 3. The second zone's detection point is 10m after
Turn 15, with the activation point 36m after Turn 16.
They're away, great starts from Vettel and Hamilton whilst further back Webber appears to have a minor clash with Alonso with Raikkonen also involved in the melee. A Great start from Massa however, who by T4 is ahead of the Mercedes duo.
Raikkonen is worried about his tyres, the Finn also thought to have hit someone.
At the end of lap 1, it's Vettel, Massa, Rosberg, Hamilton, Hulkenberg, Raikkonen, Webber, Perez, Ricciardo and Alonso. Di Resta, Vergne and Pic all pit. Van der Garde also pits the Dutchman complaining about Chilton.
At the end of lap 2, as expected, Vettel pits, as does Alonso, who also takes on a new nose. They rejoin in 17th and 20th.
Relay shows Webber clashing with Raikkonen and then Alonso at the start, unbelievably the Australian escapes the incidents with no damage.
As the Mercedes duo shadow Massa, Raikkonen is all over Hulkenberg with Webber and Perez in hot pursuit.
Hulkenberg pits at the end of lap 5, swapping to the primes, Bianchi also pits. Vettel is up to 14th.
Webber passes Raikkonen to take 4th as Alonso complains about the handling of his car following that first lap clash.
Button pits at the end of lap 6, the McLaren driver, now, curiously on options, rejoins in 18th.
Raikkonen is struggling, the Finn (options) now passed by Perez (primes).
Rosberg and Raikkonen both pit at the end of lap 7, as Vettel closes on 11th placed Gutierrez.
After just 7 laps the tyre strategy isn't working out as planned, certainly for Vettel, his pace far from impressive.
As Massa pits, along with Hamilton, Webber takes the lead in addition to posting a new fastest lap (32.398). Maldonado also pits.
On lap 9, Webber posts another fastest lap (31.828) as he extends his lead over Perez to 4.3s. Ricciardo is now third ahead of Grosjean, Sutil and Vettel. As the Red Bull driver lines up his countryman, Vettel is told that he's not racing Sutil.
Alonso is all over 16th placed Vergne, Button, 3.4s up the road, being his next target once (if) he passes the Frenchman.
A 31.548 sees Webber stretch his lead to 6.1s as Vettel passes Grosjean to take 4th, the German now 11.4s behind his Red Bull teammate.
With Van der Garde the only retirement, after 12 laps it's: Webber, Perez, Ricciardo, Vettel, Grosjean, Sutil, Gutierrez, Massa, Rosberg, Bottas, Hamilton, Hulkenberg, Raikkonen, di Resta, Button, Alonso, Vergne, Chilton, Bianchi and Pic.
At the end of the lap Button makes his second stop of the day, switching back to the primes. Moments later Vettel sweeps by Ricciardo to take third.
Next time around Grosjean pits rejoining in 15th as Vettel posts a new fastest lap (31.086).
Currently 6th, Gutierrez is handed a drive-through for a "jumped start".
After 16 laps, Webber, Perez, Ricciardo, Sutil, Bottas and Chilton, who all started on primes, are the only driver yet to stop. Gutierrez serves his drive-through, returning to the race in 13th.
In 19th, Button is told that he "effectively racing (14th placed) Alonso. Vettel continues to post fastest laps but he is only marginally quicker than his teammate.
As Vettel closes in, setting a new fastest lap in the process (30.750), Perez is told that he is not racing the German and therefore not to waste time on him.
Having been passed by Alonso on the pit straight, Gutierrez - who has yet to stop - subsequently re-takes the position, the Sauber demonstrating the same amazing traction we witnessed in Japan. As the Spaniard languishes behind the Mexican, memories of Abu Dhabi 2010 spring to mind. Sort of.
Vettel finally nails Perez heading into T4, courtesy of DRS, subsequently setting about closing the 11.6s gap to his teammate. Elsewhere, Alonso finally disposes himself of the pesky Gutierrez.
Raikkonen, currently 11th, is told that he needs to cool the car on the straights where possible. Elsewhere, Rosberg makes a bold move on Massa but it doesn't pay off, though he takes the place he runs wide and loses it back to the Ferrari driver. Hamilton keeps a watching eye.
A great scrap between Hulkenberg, Bottas and Raikkonen, sees the German appear to gain an advantage by leaving the track in his efforts to pass the Williams. The Sauber driver insists he was force wide however, the stewards may have seen it differently.
At the end of lap 26, Gutierrez finally pits, as does Vergne. The Mexican remains on the harder rubber.
Next time around Rosberg pits, leaving Hamilton to take up the fight with Massa. He rejoins in 13th.
Webber finally pits at the end of lap 28, switching to the options, he rejoins in second. Perez also pits, the McLaren driver also switching to options.
"It's not fair," screams Grosjean as he battles with Gutierrez both drivers weaving all over the track. Indeed, the stewards reveal they are investigating the incident.
Perez sweeps past Hamilton to take 6th, as Webber posts a new fastest lap (29.500).
At the end of lap 30, Massa, Hamilton, di Resta and Alonso all pit. Chilton also.
With the strategies all over the place we're not going to know who is where until the final few laps.
Vettel makers his second, and final, stop at the end of lap 31, rejoining in second, 11.667s behind his Red Bull teammate. Bottas also pits. Next time around Webber stop to get rid of his options, swapping the lead with his teammate.
Button makes his third stop at the end of lap 32, rejoining in 18th. Elsewhere, the stewards announce that they are investigating the Hulkenberg/Bottas incident.
Ricciardo, Perez and Hulkenberg all pit, as does Bianchi. In third place, Sutil, after 34 laps, remains the only driver yet to stop.
Vettel is reminded that his current tyres have to last him for the remainder of the race, whilst Webber is told "we can't go crazy". Thirteen seconds down on his teammate, Webber will be rueing those two clashes on the opening lap.
Alonso makes his third stop at the end of lap 36, the Spaniard dropping from 13th to 16th in the process. It's a miserable race for the two-time champion.
Raikkonen passes Sutil who is now lapping almost 2s slower than everyone else. At 38 laps he has also exceeded Pirelli's recommendations.
Ricciardo pits at the end of lap 38, as does Maldonado, Sutil upping his pace just a little.
Bad news for Webber who is told that the team has lost "gearbox sync", the Australian pulling to the side of the track just moments later. Rotten luck for the Sports Car bound Aussie.
Told of his teammate's problem, Vettel replies: "I am aware, I am aware".
The mood in the Red Bull garage is glum, Webber walks in search of a lift back to the pits, his helmet still in place he waves half-heartedly to the fans.
Rosberg passes Sutil who subsequently pits, not a moment too soon. The Force India rejoins, just ahead of his teammate, in 9th on options. Can he really do 19 laps on them, surely not.
Now up to third, Rosberg posts a new fastest lap (29.393).
Replay shows Webber being told to stop the car, advised that he has an alternator issue.
After 44 laps, Vettel leads Raikkonen by 25.4s with Rosberg a further 8.5s down the road. Grosjean is fourth, ahead of Massa, Hamilton, Perez, Hulkenberg, Sutil and di Resta. Alonso is currently 14th and Button 16th.
Di Resta passes his force India teammate as the stewards reveal that no further action will be taken following the Grosjean/Gutierrez incident.
Perez is told that it is doubtful that Raikkonen (currently P2) can make it to the end on his tyres in which case he will emerge behind the Mexican in P7.
Already struggling on the options, a train of four cars, including Alonso, forms behind Sutil.
Massa is told by Rob Smedley that he will soon be able to "attack Grosjean".
Gutierrez pits at the end of lap 48, dropping from 14th to 17th in the process.
A bold move sees Ricciardo pass Bottas for 11th, with Alonso also passing the Finn shortly after.
"We're confident these tyre will last," Rosberg is told as he closes to within 4.3s of Raikkonen. "You're doing a really good job."
"Your pace is good," Vettel is told, "you just need to keep it tidy."
As Rosberg posts another fastest lap (28.816), Bottas pits. Moments later Gutierrez goes quickest, the Mexican posting a 28.682.
Rosberg is all over the back of Raikkonen as Vettel is told to stop using his drink bottle.
We can see the headlines now... Vettel suffers drink problem.
Rosberg sweeps by Raikkonen on the back straight, with Grosjean now only 7.8s behind. With only 8 laps remaining it is too late to pit the Finn.
A portent of what's to come in 2014, Alonso is unable to pass Ricciardo, the popular Australian heading to Red Bull next year.
A late stop for Hulkenberg, who drops from 8th to 13th. A stop for Chilton also.
Having posted a new fastest lap (28.116) - probably to relieve the boredom, Vettel is told to be cautious.
Hulkenberg pits again, the Sauber driver's race having fallen apart. He retires.
As Hamilton complains that his "tyres are gone", Grosjean is forced wide by Raikkonen as he makes his move on the Finn. The Frenchman is not impressed. In the meantime Massa closes in and subsequently passes Raikkonen whose tyres are clearly well past their 'sell by'.
As Hamilton closes on Raikkonen, Perez is all over the Mercedes. In ninth, Sutil is still hanging on.
A great scrap between Raikkonen, Hamilton and Perez, the Mexican nailing both of them in an audacious move, admittedly both on stone dead tyres. As the McLaren heads into the distance, Hamilton tries a move but it is entirely in vain.
At the end of lap 58 Raikkonen finally pits, rejoining in 7th. Meanwhile, Grosjean is told that he needs to "short shift" as much as he can.
Vettel begins his final lap, his fourth title just a couple of miles away.
As Vettel takes the flag, and the title, Button makes his fourth stop of the day.
Rosberg takes a fine second ahead of an equally fine Grosjean, who finishes ahead of Massa, Perez, Hamilton, Raikkonen - who posts fastest lap on the last lap - di Resta, Sutil and Ricciardo.
Alonso is eleventh, ahead of Maldonado, Vergne, Button, Gutierrez, Bottas, Chilton and Bianchi.
"You've done it in style," says Christian Horner, "you've joined the greats".
Before Vettel can react however, he is told that Raikkonen took the fastest lap... well, you can't have everything.
It won't place the officials but in celebration of his achievement Vettel completes a series of donuts in front of the main stand. He climbs from the car, waves to the crowd, throws his gloves into the thronging mass and even kneels to kiss the tarmac.
It will annoy the hell out of the powers that be but it's what the sport needs...
The relief at having wrapped it all up is obvious and now Sebastian, his team and the rest of us can enjoy the remaining races.
We might not have got the strategic intrigue we'd hoped for but we did get some great performances, not lease Grosjean's drive from 17th to 3rd, with kudos to Rosberg, Perez and the Force India duo.
Funny enough, despite all Christian Horner's claims regarding celebratory T-Shirts they appear out of nowhere, Helmut Marko among the first to put one on.
The boy done good!
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