09/10/2013
NEWS STORY
"Tony Abbott is a misogynist, sexist, homophobic pr**k, a bully, a racist, a liar and is the worst Prime Minister in Australian history."
These are the words which introduce a Facebook page entitled: "Tony Abbott - Worst PM in Australian History". Within days of the page's creation, and before Abbott had even been sworn into office, it had received more than 166,000 "likes". Some endorsement.
I concur, the internet is accommodating to a culture of abuse and group stalking. Forums and chat sites generally operate as open sewers. Blogs epitomise a celebration of closed minds. The communications revolution, the rise of social media, is blatantly a backward step in mental development and objectiveness of the human kind. A champion of small mindedness maybe, but I like this forthright way of doing things.
There is another option, good old fashioned dispassionate journalism. But, in an apparent two-runner race, it is the complete and utter absence of the latter within specialised F1 media circles which endears me to community cybersphere and opinionism.
Let me elaborate, a day after Felipe Massa's departure from Ferrari was announced a self-compromising magazine editor, a bigot, wrote a wonderfully constructed piece on how the Brazilian driver could "hold his head high when looking back on his career with the Italian team". Sympathy was the underlying theme, facts were not in the equation.
Here's facts: M. Alboreto (55 races), E. Irvine (49), C. Regazzoni (34), S. Johansson (31), R. Barrichello (30), C. Amon and G. Berger (27 apiece) all garnered ugly losing streaks but F. Massa's 81 consecutive starts without a win comprehensively trumps them all. Similarly of the last 40 races both Ferraris have completed Massa has not finished ahead of his teammate on a single occasion.
In my book his engineer, Rob Smedley, about to be released from his demoralizing futile role, should take a career change becoming a columnist where his freely stated truths such as "Fernando is faster than you," would be embraced.
Simply put I appreciate such honesty and find journalists writing "let's hope he [Massa] finds another team where he can prosper" every part as offensive and puke-worthy as the very worst the Internet forums could throw at me. Such antics are not journalism, they are not even examples of diplomacy, they are gimp-masked, hand-cuffed submissiveness.
The people who compile these stories and recent similar pieces of tat such as "Mark Webber's transfer to sports car racing is Formula 1's loss" and state habitual loser "Brazilian Rubens Barrichello will be a welcome return to the sport" are akin to independent MP's horse trading in the corridors of power. The type that would give up at least three of their strongest beliefs should they be allowed to compromise all of their other strict values in a quest to mollify those worth knowing.
Speak the truth, state the blatantly obvious. Do not compromise yourself for the sake of personal relationships or a fear of alienating yourself from teams and drivers. It is notable most of F1's televisual pundits and a sizeable proportion of the F1 media fit the description of former driver or team boss. These old boys with badges are oblivious to their real clients and customers, the readers and viewers, who deserve better than mushroom farming... being kept in the dark and fed shit.
The pursuit of excellence through technology is the distilled spirit of Formula 1. Its shortcoming, its compromise, is the discarding of genuine driving talent (invariably through their lack of money) and the retention of those blatantly lacking in ability at this highest echelon. The reasoning is not the biggest mystery since crop circles first appeared on our TV screens but not only are F1 media outlets unwilling to expose the truth they promote the myths.
Rubbish you can bet on
And so to betting opportunities this weekend: Massa has declared he is now "racing for himself". That makes no difference, he cannot possibly win, he's useless.
Webber, out-qualified by his teammate 14 times and beaten 13 times from the same 14 races this year (perfectly in line with his form of recent seasons) is described as 'a very unlucky driver'. It's a complimentary way of declaring he has absolutely no chance either. That leaves just five pilots in competitive cars who can conceivably win in Japan.
However, Sebastian Vettel, driving a far luckier Red Bull than his teammate cannot sensibly be opposed. Earlier this week he was quoted at 20/1 to win all of the remaining races of the season. That was with Bet365.com but, as bookmakers go, I feel as much love for them as 166,000 Australians do for their Prime Minister.
They may have taken a £5 bet at that price to disprove it was anything other than a publicity stunt but just 7/1 is the best and realistic price available with the mainstream firms which will take something resembling a bet.
Max Chilton is comprehensibly embarrassed by his teammate week-in-week-out and is a shoe-in to finish last of the race finishers here in Japan. Sadly there is no betting market available for that eventuality. He is 1/5 to be classified however and that is a mighty proposition – 20 percent interest on your money for a 90 minute wait – considering he has completed every race of the season.
Paul Di Resta, the unlikeliest looking Italian I've ever seen and a cousin of the IndyCar driver with the funniest Scottish name you have ever heard, Dario Franchitti, has become accident prone. I fancy backing him to not make the points at odds of 3/10. Then again that quote is in line with probability so the 11/4 about him not finishing the race is a better proposition.
On track Jenson Button could send a glass eye to sleep but his unexciting style has seen him earn points in the last six races and odds of 4/11 to do so again are greater than the true probability of the outcome.
Conversely teammate Perez, who has done a good job in proving those podium finishes last year were a result of good strategy calls and not outstanding driver performance, looks a great bet at 11/10 to not make the points. Seven times this year he has failed to finish in the top-ten, seven times he has.
With a CV which stands up to microscopic scrutiny the double World Champion which is Fernando Alonso boasts 13 podium finishes from his last 19 races and, at even-money, he is my idea of a lock-in for a podium finish this weekend.
This season, as is the case most seasons, the three F1 tracks featuring the most 'full throttle time' are Spa (Belgium), Monza (Italy) and Suzuka (Japan). The top four tracks in terms of 'longest flat-out sections' are Spa, Shanghai (China), Monza and Suzuka.
So far Fernando Alonso has won in Shanghai and finished second to Vettel in both Spa and Monza. Therein one must conclude, with the same tyres in use as Belgium and Italy – the ones he likes above all others... not that he likes any of them much at all – he will perform with distinction here in Suzuka. 11/4 about another Vettel/Alonso 1-2 (in either order) is mouth-watering.
Finally the 'safety car' which is quoted at 4/5 (equates to 55 percent likely) to be deployed. Considering there has been a safety car period in all four of the races at Suzuka since the race returned here following a brief dwelling at the Fuji Speedway in 2009, it's clearly over-priced and should be backed.
Nothing yet on the odds of a fire truck but it's only a matter of time before eccentric Irish bookmaker Paddy Power offers odds about one holding a tight line around the Spoon Curve at some stage.
This Week's Selections:
Fernando Alonso to finish on the Podium: 160 points @ 1/1 (PaddyPower.com)
Alonso/Vettel to finish 1-2 (either order): 60 points @ 11/4 (Bet Victor)
Safety Car: 70 points @ 4/5 (SkyBet.com)
Di Resta to not finish the race: 30 points @ 11/4 (WilliamHill.com)
Perez to not make the points: 20 points @ 11/10 (Bwin.com)
This week's investment: 340 points
Current profit/loss: -222.50 points
© Roy Brindley 2013
All prices courtesy of Bet Victor
Please Note: This article is not an advertorial
The author, who is not affiliated to or accredited by FOM, has recently had an insurance policy with Aon revoked and been refused entry into Australia.