26/06/2013
NEWS STORY
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The 2013 season is approaching half way and for all the rule changes, tyre-gates, adjustable flappy bits, blown doo-dahs, double what-ja-me-call-its, f-ducts, multi-21s, and qualifying and refuelling format changes intended to mix it up and make more interesting racing - at the moment it looks like, for the second time in a decade that a German is going to win his fourth championship in a row. Furchtbar.
British fans are understandably dejected about it. I am dejected about it. We have a fine crop of drivers in F1 at the moment but they are having a pretty dismal time. There has been no British win in the first seven races which hasn’t happened since 2006.
The German's meteoric rise, the British drivers' gradual slide and steep ticket prices are being cited as reasons for the expected low attendance at Silverstone this year. I'm sure they all contribute. But is it really that bad, or are we just being indulgently British, and having a good whinge? Is there any glimmer of hope for the British fans this week?
Ticket Prices
Well, I think the cost of going is a concern. I had a jaunt to a European grand prix a couple of years ago, for which the cost of travel, plus a weekend ticket in a seat with an awesome view, some great tapas and a questionable burger was less than the equivalent seat for the weekend at Silverstone. It didn't rain either - although I'm not holding Silverstone responsible for that.
Getting into the circuit was dead easy, facilities were good, it was a cracking race with plenty of overtaking. There were some nice locals that we befriended who seemed to be really into the racing: they even offered to paint our faces to get into the spirit of things and join in with their funny dance every time Hamilton went past. I digress. I'd love to go to the British Grand Prix, but to be honest; I'd prefer to travel, see somewhere new and see a race for my money.
So, what of the Brits?
What is the story so far this season, and do they have any chance of winning at all?
Lewis Hamilton - Mercedes
2013 form
Conventional wisdom says that Hamilton is one of the naturally fastest drivers in the pack, but while there has been some relief that the Mercedes has been more competitive than expected, it does not look like a championship winning car yet does it? Apart from Spain, which was a bit of a disaster, he has been in the top 5 every time. It is that kind of consistency that sees him fourth in the championship. So he should be battling for a podium at least, right?
Not necessarily: unfortunately Silverstone is probably most similar in track characteristics to Barcelona (of the tracks we've been to so far this year). So once again, I'm afraid I'd expect to see Hamilton qualify well, but then drop steadily back through the pack. That is unless Mercedes have actually made progress with rear tyre degradation. But it is very difficult to assess this from Canada and Monaco, as neither race is particularly hard on the tyres. Surely they learnt something in those naughty 1,000 kilometres.
Can he raise his game any higher and transcend the limitations of the car? He seems calmer than a couple of years ago when he was crashing into everybody (or everybody was crashing into him), but the frustration is still clear: to quote him in a recent interview, ‘time is slipping away'. Maybe a British Grand Prix win would bring the confidence back and lead to a resurgence.
There is hope though: it might rain. In fact, let's be honest, it probably will rain. Dry qualifying (so he can exploit the Mercedes raw pace) and wet race (to reduce the effect of its flaws) would be the ideal scenario for Mercedes. If that happens I wouldn't bet against a home win.
Previous British GP Analysis
The wet has been good for Hamilton before. Can you believe it is 5 years since he won the soaking British Grand Prix before going on to win the championship? Since then, his Silverstone record has not made such good reading - Average grid position: 10. Average finish: 8. Sorry fans under umbrellas or wearing bin bags, bring on some rain!
Prediction: Dry race: 6 - Wet race: 1
Jenson Button - McLaren
2013 form
Maybe the press have only been so kind about Hamilton's season far because by comparison to Button's it looks pretty stellar. Button has started no higher than the fourth row of the grid, and not set foot on the podium. And the results don't seem to be getting any better. Races have been marginally better than qualifying for McLaren, with Button making up an average of 2.5 positions per race (I'm not counting the ‘classified as 17th' when he retired in Malaysia). But making up 2.5 positions from an average start of 10th is not much consolation for a team and driver who started the season with championship aspirations.
Although he was pretty despondent after the Canadian grand prix, Button seems confident that it shouldn't be quite so bad this time out, with the high speed nature of the track suiting the car better than the last couple.
Previous British GP Analysis
Button has never scored a podium at the British Grand Prix and I'm afraid it does not look like he is going to improve on that record this weekend. In the last five attempts he has had 2 retirements a 4th, 6th and 10th place. His best qualifying position in that time was a 5th in 2011. He has qualified 14th or lower 3 times in the last 5.
There is hope though: it might rain! Button's best qualifying this year came in Malaysia in those tricky wet conditions in which he excels. Although the McLaren does not seem to perform that much better (comparatively) in the wet, Button's guile and skill amongst the puddles will be an asset if it rains, won't it?
Prediction: Dry race: 8 - Wet race: 5
Max Chilton - Marussia
2013 form
The season so far has been much as you would expect for Chilton at Marussia. The good news is, he has bought the car home every time. With an average qualifying spot of 21.5 and average finishing spot of 17 I think we can hope for much of the same again at Silverstone. To finish twenty-first (or higher), first you must finish.
The highlight of 2013 so far was a 14th place in Monte-Carlo and all round he seems to be doing a pretty good job. The bad news is that his team mate seems to be doing an even better job and a points finish still looks a way off.
Previous British GP Analysis
Obviously 2013 is Chilton's rookie year. But Silverstone has not been particularly kind to him in the last couple of years of GP2 racing. In 2012 he finished 9th in the feature race and retired from the sprint race. In 2011 he crashed out of the feature race and finished 24th in the sprint race. Those races were won by familiar names like Esteban Gutierrez (2012), Jules Bianchi (2011) and Romain Grosjean (2011). I think a good target for Chilton would be to beat Bianchi and finish ahead of Gutierrez too, or at least somewhere near him. To do that, with inferior equipment, would be impressive.
There is hope though: it might rain! Rain and chaos in qualifying or the race are always good for helping the teams at the back secure a shock result.
Prediction: Dry race: 17 - Wet race: 13
Paul di Resta - Force India
Why save di Resta until last? Don't you always do that with the best?
2013 form
The real story of di Resta's season so far is: a few (3 from 7) poor qualifying decisions costing him stacks of grid positions, but still showing some really impressive race pace. He was tantalisingly close to a podium in Bahrain and seemed to make a single set of tyres last forever in Canada. On average he has qualified 12th and finished 7th. What can they achieve if they can get a whole weekend together at Force India?
I think he was probably a bit gutted to have been overlooked for other drives that came up over the course of last year, but realistically, where would he be doing better this year? I expect to see him do well at Silverstone.
Previous British GP Analysis
Like the other Brits, di Resta has not had an amazing time at Silverstone (in his first two F1 attempts). A 6th place qualifying followed by a 15th place finish in 2011 and a 10th place qualifying followed by a first lap puncture from Grosjean in 2012.
Di Resta is probably the only one of the Brits that wouldn't be helped out by some rain at some point or another. He'll be hoping for an uneventful, dry weekend. Could he get his first podium? The support of the British fans certainly won't hurt.
Prediction: Dry race: 3 - Wet race: 9
Any other cause for hope?
Yes there is great cause for hope: as on this occasion, at least, I don't Vettel is going to win. And don't get me wrong, this isn't about me not liking Vettel - he seems like a nice enough chap - I'm just a bit bored of him having it all his own way. I want drama!
Vettel's record at Silverstone since joining Red Bull is: Average grid: 2. Average finish: 3.25 Wins: 1
But who can stop him?
Well, I think there is a good chance that (unlike in the Milky Way adverts) Alonso could bring the red car home ahead of the blue car this weekend.
His record at Silverstone over the same period (since Vettel joined Red Bull) is: Average grid: 4.25 Average finish: 8 Wins: 1. However, this includes a race in a way-off-the-pace Renault in 2009 and a dubious penalty in 2010, both of which resulted in p14 finishes. The last couple of years have been much more fruitful for the Spaniard with an average grid: 2 and Average finish: 1.5.
Alonso should really but up at the top of the driver standings, but for some silly errors. I expect to see him claw some points back this time.
Even if the red car doesn't win the race, Vettel will face some stiff competition from the other blue car. Silverstone has been good to Webber. He was my pick to win last year and didn't let me down. His record over the same period has been: Average grid: 2. Average finish: 1.75.
Webber hasn't notched up a hat trick of wins at any tracks yet. He has two wins to his name at Interlagos, Monte Carlo and Silverstone. It would certainly be a nice accolade to have over his statto team mate wouldn't it, and could be just kind of medicine he needs motivate him for the weekend.
So chin up you Brits. Even if it doesn't rain and my predictions go down the pan, the next best thing after a British win would be to see a bit of Aussie grit upset the apple cart and bring the championship back alive. It just could happen.