09/05/2013
NEWS STORY
 |
Betting Angle
I was going to start with the exciting news that Ryanair is set to become the new sponsor of the Barcelona Grand Prix. In the belief the Circuit de Catalunya is, like numerous Ryanair airports, upwards of 50 miles away from the city it is supposed to be in, it seemed the perfect sponsorship fit.
Naturally I was being facetious as there is little to get excited about at this circuit which has regularly been accused of delivering a boring spectacle. That’s a little harsh. With the pole-sitter winning this race every year for a decade, a sequence broken only by Mark Webber in 2011 and resumed by Pastor Maldonado last year, tedious is a better description.
On the bright side I’ve just learned Rodolfo Gonzalez will be at the wheel of a Marussia for the first free practice session. That offers some relief as I’m looking forward to hearing quips about ‘Speedy Gonzalez’.
Talking of TV icons, it was also great to see the world’s richest man, Carlos Slim, in Bahrain. I confess every time I heard his name I thought of cigars – of the slim panatella variety – and the classic 80’s television commercial featuring ‘Carlos Fandango wide wheels’. For those intrigued and under the age of 45 I refer you to YouTube.
OK, with the notable exceptions of McLaren and Williams, last year’s form has been an exceptional insight into this year’s results. Yes, the Ferrari looks more competitive than at this stage last season and Lotus slightly better but, all in all, cars are performing pretty much as they did at individual circuits twelve months previously.
Therein, when looking for form clues, I’m going to delve no deeper than the outset of the 2012 season. Nothing else should bear any relevance.
Strikingly the Red Bulls qualified seventh and eleventh in China last year and that form translated into a ninth and fourteenth qualifying in this year’s rendition of the very same race.
Alarmingly for Red Bull fans they only qualified seventh and eleventh here in Barcelona last season and I’m confident that will equate to another disappointing showing this weekend. I appear to be alone on this stance as Vettel is just 6/4 at Betvictor.com (and that’s the biggest price of all the bookmaking firms) to claim pole this weekend.
Most are aware you need to start at the front of the grid to have any chance in Barcelona – it is the ideal prep for Monaco – and therein I am leaning towards a bold showing, potentially a race win… from Mercedes.
Before you offer me a straight choice between a breathalyser and our old friend the canvas cardigan with those arms that tie behind the back please stop to consider…
Many were stunned when Nico Rosberg’s Mercedes claimed pole in Bahrain – he was backed at 200/1 to do so – but should it have been such a surprise? He had done the same twelve months previously and his teammate, Hamilton, took pole in China, the third race of the current season, a week beforehand.
This season’s qualifying figures are eye opening:
Team Qualified Average Qualifying
Mercedes: 3-6-4-6-1-4-1-4 (3.62)
Ferrari: 4-5-2-3-3-5-3-6 (3.87)
Red Bull: 1-2-1-5-9-14-2-5 (4.87)
Lotus: 7-8-7-11-2-6-9-11 (7.62)
… and quite simply a pole position here means a whole lot more than it has at any venue visited so far in 2013.
Naturally tyre wear is a huge concern but the softs will not be in use and the Mercedes has no other discernible shortcomings. Indeed it has been good enough to give Lewis a trophy in both Malaysia and China.
The Safety Car is now overdue an appearance – that’s a 6/4 shot with the bookies – and who knows it could play into the hands of a car needing to preserve its rubber more than most. I concede, irksomely, it normally shows up only after an opening bend incident.
Strikingly neither Lotus driver has claimed a pole position this season or last and amongst the current leading four teams they are the qualifying backmarkers. At first glance it makes them easy to oppose but I’ve been hearing whispers.
Now I normally take such whispers with a tub of Saxa but I’m reliably informed Lotus’ much touted Double DRS will be unveiled in Barcelona and there is talk of it delivering a half-a-second a lap improvement.
Another serious contender has to be Ferrari who, surprisingly, boast more front rows than any other team this season. The prospect of Fernando Alonso starting anywhere near the front of the long run to the opening corner here on home soil will rightfully see him start favourite.
Unrequited love, thwarted opportunities, barren bonds, dashed hopes and broken hearts is the steady diet Ferrari’s No. 2, Massa, continues to serve up. And so I see no more than three drivers who can realistically finish ahead of Lewis Hamilton who, let us not forget, was the fastest qualifier here last year albeit with just enough fuel to fill my lawnmower.
This Week's Selections:
250 points Lewis Hamilton to finish on the Podium at 9/4 with Betvictor.com
This week’s investment: 250 points
Current profit/loss: + 865 points
© Roy Brindley 2013
Please Note: This article is not an advertorial