24/05/2009
NEWS STORY
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While we know that Monaco has its own unique micro-climate, with one hour to go before today's Grand Prix, it is highly unlikely that the Rain God will play any part in the outcome of today's race.
Therefore, as we anticipate what might happening over the course of the following 78 laps, we are left to consider reliability, strategy and moments of madness.
It wouldn't be Monaco without some silliness, and with the Safety Car having made no less than 7 appearances here since 2000, there is every likelihood that we will see the fabulous silver Mercedes again this afternoon, courtesy of those extraordinary front wings and a certain amount of exasperation/frustration from drivers starting from the back of the grid and far more used to being at the front.
Ste Devote is often the scene of such mayhem, but let's not forget Turn 6, the former Loews Hotel corner. On a circuit which has more than its fair share of 'accident black spots', these two corners are notorious, and with good reason.
Of course, should the inevitable happen, and we witness a pile up at Ste Devote on the first lap, fuel strategy will go out the window.
The lightest runner is Vettel, hence his frustration with Nakajima for spoiling what could and should have been a pole-winning time. Starting from fourth will hurt the German, however, in the right circumstances such an early stop could work to his advantage.
Button, Raikkonen, Barrichello, Massa, Rosberg, Kovalainen and Webber are all on a pretty similar fuel strategy, while keep an eye on Alonso who is just that little bit heavier.
We've already seen Red Bull encounter technical problems this weekend, most notably an engine failure for Vettel, however, on the whole the Milton Keynes' cars have been very reliable this season, indeed, in terms of reliability, they are only second to Brawn. On the other hand, Ferrari and Williams have both had their fair share of technical problems.
On paper, this has to be another win for Brawn GP, and for some reason we happen to feel that this weekend will be Rubens Barrichello's turn for glory. That said, Button was on scintillating form yesterday and is in no mood to give way to his teammate, birthday or no birthday.
As for Kimi Raikkonen, isn't it great to see him back on form? Asked yesterday how much his front row qualifying place meant to him, he replied: "Not much. I would rather have been in the front." That's the Kimi of old, the Kimi we know and love. It's great to have him back.
While Vettel is scheduled to be the first to pit, which has to impact his chances, never write the German off, particularly on a real drivers' circuit such as this, for the youngster is a driver out of the traditional racer mould.
Massa has looked good in almost all the sessions, and if the Ferrari really is as good as it appears to be, what better time for the Brazilian to take his maiden win here.
While its good to see Rosberg and Williams in the Top 6, one has to question the reliability of the Grove car, not to mention its driver's failure to convince for much of this year, other than on Fridays. On the other hand, providing he stays out of trouble, a big ask we know, watch out for Nakajima who is running heavier than his teammate.
With Hamilton starting from the very back of the grid, following his crash in Q1 and the subsequent gearbox change, McLaren's hopes rest on Heikki Kovalainen, and while a win is almost out of the question, we wouldn't be surprised to see him take a sneaky podium… after all, this is the track where anything can, and usually does, happen.
Although starting from eighth, we have a feeling that this could be Mark Webber's opportunity to shine, providing he doesn't encounter one of those epic doses of bad luck for which he is almost legendary, after all, let's not forget he has Nakajima just behind as well as Piquet and Fisichella.
While we don't expect him to be standing on top of the podium this afternoon, do keep an eye on Alonso, who is always a dark horse. Should there be any silliness this afternoon, the canny two-time World Champion will be the first to take advantage.
Of the rest, the Toro Rosso duo merely have to concentrate on not taking each other out, while Fisichella could possibly give his team its maiden point, providing he keeps his mind on the job in hand. And let's not forget Adrian Sutil, who surely looks on Monaco as unfinished business.
As for Hamilton, BMW and Toyota, today is all about damage limitation, though we have the feeling that none of them will be sorry to be leaving the Principality tonight.
Summing up, providing things don't get too silly, and yes we do believe there will be at least one appearance by the Safety Car, we feel that its going to be, Button, Barrichello, Raikkonen, Webber, Massa and Alonso. But what do we know, it will probable be Kubica from Trulli and Hamilton… that the nature of Monaco.
Tyre options are soft and super-soft today, which we will refer to a hard and soft, while only the McLarens and Ferraris are running KERS this weekend. While some claim that the controversial device is not particularly helpful here, in some claim it is a hindrance, Jenson Button insists that Raikkonen and Massa are among his biggest threats.
With twenty minutes to go, there remain vast swathes of empty seats in the grandstands, proof that even the playground of the rich and infamous is not immune to the credit crunch.
As the cars prepare to head off on the warm-up lap, the air temperature is 26 degrees C, while the track temperature is 42 degrees. After his team opted to make a number of set-up changes to his car, Timo Glock will start from the pitlane.
They head off on the parade lap, most appear to be on the harder (soft) compound. The main exception being Button, Barrichello and Hamilton.
They're away, ands a poor start from Raikkonen allows Barrichello to slot in behind Button. No drama, no madness, no incidents. At the end of lap 1, it's Button Barrichello, Raikkonen, Vettel, Massa, Rosberg, Kovalainen and Webber. Hamilton is up to eighteenth having passed Trulli.
On lap 2, Button posts fastest lap as he extends his lead to 1.1sd, elsewhere, Kubica pits after an incident at the Chicane on lap 1. It just gets worse for the Pole and his team.
On lap 3, Barrichello posts a new fastest lap, as Hamilton and Vettel trade fastest times in various sectors. However, it is Button who is quickest, crossing the line at 18.292.
Webber is hard on the heels of Kovalainen but also has his mirrors full of Alonso. Massa is also pressurising Vettel.
Massa makes a moves on Vettel going into the Chicane, but the German shuts the door, allowing Rosberg to close in on the Ferrari.
The Ferrari's look good, and as if to prove the point Raikkonen goes quickest, as Massa makes another move on Vettel, this time it all goes wrong and the Brazilian misses the corner at the Chicane allowing Rosberg through. Great opportunistic driving from the Williams driver.
As Button extends his lead to 2.5s all eyes are on the train of cars behind Vettel, who is already 9.9s behind Raikkonen. Behind the Red Bull driver, Rosberg, Massa, Kovalainen, Webber, Alonso, Nakajima, Piquet and Buemi are covered by less than a couple of seconds.
Vettel is in all kinds of trouble, after just 9 laps his tyres are shot and he's losing several second a lap. This is bad enough for the German, but even worse for the drivers behind him who are losing time behind the Red Bull.
Suddenly, Rosberg makes his move and passes the ailing Red Bull, with Massa and a host of others following suit.
Vettel pits as does Hamilton, while Buemi clouts Piquet from behind having got his braking all wrong at Ste Devote, the Toro Rosso is out on the spot while the Renault heads back to the pits..
After just 11 laps, Button is coming up to lap 2008 winner Hamilton, as Raikkonen closes in on Barrichello. The Finn is all over the Brawn as Button extends his lead to 7.5s.
Massa is told that the Brawns are struggling on the soft tyres, as the Ferrari driver posts a new fastest lap (16.383). After his early stop, Vettel has dropped back to thirteenth.
At the end of lap 15, Raikkonen pits. He adjusts his front wing, fits another set of hards and re-joins the race in seventh ahead of Alonso. Rosberg goes quickest.
It's all over for Vettel who crashes out at Ste Devote, as Barrichello is the first of the Brawns to pit.
Next time around (lap 17), Button pits, rejoining in second, behind Rosberg but ahead of Massa, who both have to pit. Kovalainen is fourth, ahead of Webber, with Barrichello sixth ahead of Raikkonen.
At the end of lap 17, Rosberg pits. The German fits the harder (soft) tyre and rejoins in eighth behind Alonso. Therefore, Button leads Massa, Kovalainen and Webber. Hamilton is currently running in sixteenth of the seventeen remaining drivers.
Massa pits at the end of lap 20, rejoining in seventh behind Alonso, who is chasing Raikkonen. Next time around, it is Kovalainen who pits, the Finn re-emerging in eighth ahead of Rosberg, who has clearly lost out during these first stops.
At the end of lap 22 Webber pits, rejoining in sixth, great work by the Austrian team.
Consequently, after 22 laps, it's: Button, Barrichello, Raikkonen, Alonso, Massa, Webber, Rosberg, Kovalainen, Nakajima and Bourdais, though Alonso, Nakajima and Bourdais still have to stop.
Behind the Top 10, it's Fisichella, Heidfeld, Trulli, Glock, Kubica, Hamilton and Sutil.
After 25 laps, Button enjoys a 16.7s lead over his teammate having done so well in his first sting with the dreaded softs (super-softs). Barrichello has Raikkonen just 3s behind, with Alonso a further 1.4s down the road.
At the end of lap 28, as Barrichello posts a new fastest lap (16.152), Alonso finally pits, rejoining in eleventh behind Fisichella.
Kubica's back in the pits, and after a quick check the car is wheeled back into its garage. The BMW master-plan has come well and truly off the rails.
On lap 31, Barrichello goes quickest, but his time is almost instantly eclipsed by Raikkonen and then Massa, the Brazilian Ferrari driver crossing the line at 15.908.
Raikkonen is advised that while he has Barrichello under control, his real threat will come from his Ferrari teammate, Felipe Massa. The Finn is 3.5s down on the Brawn and 3.5s up on his teammate.
Massa posts a new fastest lap (17.759) on lap 33, as he extends his lead over fifth placed Webber to 4.2s. Next time around he goes even quicker, crossing the line at 15.757.
Rob Smedley warns Massa that he's being watched, and must keep at least one tyre on when riding the kerbs. Elsewhere, Button laps Hamilton again, the 2008 champion still down in fifteenth place and making no impression on Glock.
On lap 38, While Raikkonen is quickest in the firs sector, Massa is quickest overall, posting yet another fastest lap as the Ferrari maintain their awesome pace.
At half distance, it's: Button, Barrichello, Raikkonen, Massa, Webber, Rosberg, Kovalainen, Bourdais, Fisichella, Alonso, Heidfeld, Nakajima, Trulli, Glock, Hamilton and Sutil.
Replay shows Massa playing with five, all four wheels running over the kerbs at the Swimming Pool. Sure enough, Rob Smedley tells the Ferrari driver that the FIA has given him another warning.
From out of nowhere, Webber produces a 15.567, posting a new fastest lap as he closes to within 4s of Massa. Elsewhere, Heidfeld pits, his first stop of the afternoon.
After 45 laps, Bourdais, Fisichella, Trulli and Glock are the only drivers still to stop.
Clearly getting bored out front, Button goes quickest in the middle sector, finally crossing the line at 15.190, a new fastest lap. Next time around, with the next round of stops fast approaching, he goes quickest in the first sector. Trulli makes his pit stop.
At the end of lap 50, Barrichello pits, rejoining in fifth, behind Webber. Sutil and Bourdais also pit, which means that all but Fisichella and Glock have stopped.
Button pits at the end of lap 51, rejoining behind the new race leader Raikkonen, the meat in a Ferrari sandwich which is closing in on Hamilton.
It's all over for Kovalainen who gets out of shape and clouts the barrier at the Swimming Pool. Meanwhile, Raikkonen pits re-joining in fifth on the infamous softs (super-softs). Fisichella also pits.
Massa is now 0.7s down on Button, but the Ferrari still has to stop, and for the dreaded super-softs to boot. Meanwhile, Hamilton pits and has a new nose fitted in addition to a set of hards.
At the end of lap 55, Massa and Webber both pit. The Ferrari rejoins in fourth while Webber emerges in sixth, behind Rosberg, who still has to pit again.
Glock finally pits at the end of lap 58, the German rejoining in thirteenth, behind his Toyota teammate but ahead of Hamilton.
After 60 laps, it's, Button, Barrichello, Raikkonen, Massa, Rosberg, Webber, Alonso, Bourdais, Fisichella and Nakajima. However, of the main front runners, Rosberg still has to stop again, as does Alonso.
With 14 laps remaining, the Ferraris are lapping around 0.4 - 0.5s slower than the Brawns, raising concerns that the super-softs are going the same way as Vettel's in the opening stint.
Rosberg pits at the end of lap 65, rejoining in seventh on the super-softs. Elsewhere, Bourdais gets it all wrong at the Chicane. Trulli also pits.
Alonso makes his final stop at the end of lap 66, re-emerging in seventh behind Rosberg. There's a little moment as the Spaniard comes across Sutil, however, the two-time champion has it all under control.
Already 6.5s down Barrichello, Raikkonen now has Massa to contend with, the two Ferraris split by just 1.1s. However, Webber is just 3s down the road.
Button asks his crew if he can ease off just a little as he doesn't want to get involved in the three way battle ahead of him for eighth, a battle which sees Bourdais, Fisichella and Nakajima scrapping, three drivers not known for their track-craft or common sense under pressure. That said, Nakajima pits.
With 5 laps remaining, Alonso goes quickest in the final sector, the Spaniard chasing Rosberg for sixth. Elsewhere, Hamilton is hassling Heidfeld for twelfth.
Fisichella is just 1.3s behind Bourdais, agonisingly close to scoring Force India's maiden point. However, he has just 2 laps in which to make a move. Nonetheless, a great drive from the Italian.
Button begins his final lap, the Englishman just a couple of miles from his fifth win of the year. Meanwhile it's all over for Nakajima who has gone into the barriers.
"Great job, it's the one we all wanted," Button is told as he takes the flag, Brawn having taken its third 1-2 of the season.
Behind Button and Barrichello, Raikkonen finishes third ahead of Massa, with Webber fifth, ahead of Rosberg, Alonso and Bourdais.
Unfortunately, Button mistakes his first mistake of the weekend. Instead of driving round to the pit straight and parking in front of the Royal Box, he drivers straight into Parc Fermé. Consequently, after driving 78 laps of one of the most arduous tracks on the calendar the Englishman has to run the length of the pit straight for his date with Prince Albert.
Once Button arrives and the trophies are handed out, Rubens Barrichello looks suitably happy as does Kimi Raikkonen, and about time too.
Never a glory boy, Ross Brawn allows Nick Fry the limelight, the Englishman revelling in the opportunity to take the winning Constructors' Trophy and a further photo op with some royalty.
Not the most exciting of races, but a great win for Jenson and Brawn, the Englishman doing remarkably well on that infamous first stint. Another strong performance from Rubens who will surely have his day before much longer.
Third and fourth for Ferrari is probably a lot better than the Italian team was hoping for a few weeks ago. Clearly the Maranello outfit has made a significant step forward, though the real test comes in the weeks ahead.
A strong drive from Webber as Red Bull will be glad to get to Istanbul and all those other fast-corner tracks which will allow them to take the fight to Brawn, a fight which should have us on the edge of our seats in the months to come.
A good result for Rosberg and Williams also, however, the Grove outfit must now focus its efforts on maintaining its Friday form for the remainder of the weekend.
Seventh is probably the best that Fernando and Renault could hope for under the circumstances, while Sebastien Bourdais will be relieved to have won another point for Toro Rosso.
Bitter disappointment for Fisichella and Force India, the Indian team, for the second successive season finding that Lady Luck doesn't appear to be working for them on the mean streets of Monaco.
In the two weeks before Turkey there is much to do, not just for Toyota and BMW, who appear to have a mountain to climb, but for FOTA and the FIA as they attempt to settle another wretched dispute that threatens to overshadow the sport. Bernie and his friends would do well to heed those empty seats around the Principality today, surely they can't all be put down to the credit crunch.
But let's not ruin the mood, let's instead celebrate a brilliant pluperfect drive, a gutsy rugged performance best summed up by that - hard to watch - run from Parc Ferme to the Royal Box.
Jenson, we salute you.