12/10/2008
NEWS STORY
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Going into today's race starting from pole, not to mention his seven point lead, Lewis Hamilton is well aware that the World Championship is swinging his way.
However, he will also be aware that this was the situation last year, when, having scored a sensational win here, he headed into the final two rounds with a 12 point advantage over his teammate and a 17 point lead over the man who would be king.
The moral being; never take anything in F1 for granted.
That said, Lewis does go into today's race looking pretty good, especially with title rival Felipe Massa starting from fifth.
Today, Hamilton must adopt the old Bruce Forsyth motto and heed the fact that points make prizes. He must avoid being drawn into any unnecessary scraps and concentrate on one thing, not winning the Japanese Grand Prix, but winning the 2008 title.
While Kimi Raikkonen is starting from the front row, the Finn - as much as he will hate the fact - will have just one aim, to control the pace of the race and to cause Hamilton as much aggro as possible in an effort to help his teammate and his team. Meanwhile, Heikki Kovalainen will adopt a similar policy for the Woking outfit.
We could be horribly wrong - we often are - but we cannot help but feel that Massa's grid position is not entirely accidental, and that the Brazilian is running just that little bit heavier, with his title rival going the other way. Yes, he messed up his tyres, but somehow we have a feeling that he already had something in hand.
As ever, this will be about strategy, both in terms of fuel and tyres. Despite having the longest straight on the F1 calendar, as Bob Constanduros pointed out in his Saturday blog; "the two Force India drivers Sutil and Fisichella were quickest through the speedtrap at 317kph and 315.6 kph respectively. David Coulthard was next on 314.8 while the Hondas were slowest at 308 and 309. Hamilton was 15th fastest there at 310.
"What does that tell us?" Bob continues. "With Raikkonen on 313, you might see some interesting action between the McLarens and Raikkonen. Massa is only 1kph quicker than Hamilton and Kovalainen, so it will be more difficult for him."
Another excellent performance from the determined Mr Alonso sees the Singapore winner starting from fourth, while both Toyotas and both Toro Rossos look good enough for points.
The battle for fourth place in the Constructors' Championship, not to mention the fact that some drivers have yet to secure seats for 2009, ensures that we will see some fierce battles throughout the field, not only here today but in China and Brazil - as we said, points make prizes.
The jury is out on the Fuji Speedway, though compared to the highly popular Suzuka, due to host the 2009 Japanese Grand Prix, it is barely mentioned in the same breath by drivers and fans. However, with Ecclestone looking for more night races, and having already mentioned (threatened?) Japan as a possible, it is not entirely impossible that the next time we come here the whole thing will be under floodlights. Then again, as we are reminded by the drivers that this track, like so many others, is not good for overtaking, the lighting is the least of our problems. Indeed, as we ponder the 2010 Japanese Grand Prix, and with an eyes on the worldwide financial crisis, we have to seriously wonder what the grid will look like in two years, and which teams will last the course.
The tyre options this weekend are medium and soft, which we will refer to as hard (medium) and soft (Soft). For much of the weekend, other than in qualifying, ask Nick Heidfeld, the teams have found little difference between the two - though both feature the ludicrous green stripes that is supposed to make us remember the environment. And this just two weeks after the Singapore night race.
While there is little threat of rain today, it is overcast and cool, and as the cars wait on the grid, with 15 minutes still to go before the parade lap, the air temperature is 16 degrees C, while the track temperature is 22 degrees. It's cool, exceedingly so, and windy.
In the Toyota grandstand, a giant teddy bear and a giant Timo Glock and Jarno Trulli whip the company's employees into a frenzy… though, thankfully, not in the Max Mosley sense.
The field heads off on the parade lap, with most of the drivers on the harder option, Felipe Massa being the main exception, the Brazilian opting for the soft option, which has three green stripes and one white. A mutant cross between a Liquorice Allsort and a Pacer, so to speak.
In these conditions, the harder compound is the better option, so clearly Massa wants to use the better harder tyre for the last part of the race. Like we said, strategy.
They're away, and a strong start from Raikkonen, however, going into the first corner Hamilton is alongside, then takes the inside forcing the Ferrari wide, almost off the track. Further back there's an incident involving Coulthard, the Scot's race over before it has started, his rear suspension wrecked.
Hamilton, who carried too much speed into the first corner, and went wide, taking his teammate with him, has lost the lead to Kubica, indeed, the Englishman has dropped to fourth then fifth. Alonso second, ahead of Kovalainen and Trulli.
He makes a move on Massa, but the Ferrari driver is having none of it, the McLaren spins, dropping the World Championship leader to the back of the field. He returns to the pits, where the car is checked, particularly the suspension.
Despite that first corner incident, Raikkonen is running fifth, just 5.1s behind the race leader, while Massa has dropped to seventh.
Timo Glock is the first driver to make a regular stop, the German staying on the harder option.
Kubica leads Alonso by 1.6s, with Kovalainen a further 1.1s down the road. Raikkonen, who has a 5.1s advantage over Bourdais, is climbing all over Trulli. The Finn posts a string of fastest laps.
Another pit stop for Glock, who drives straight into his garage where the crew swarm over the Toyota like worker bees. The German climbs from the car realising that his race is over, a sad end to a promising weekend.
At the end of lap 8, Raikkonen makes a nice clean move on Trulli at the end of the pit straight, elsewhere Sutil pulls to the side of the track at the end of the pitlane, his right-rear tyre having disintegrated, almost Mansell-style.
While Raikkonen is closing in on his fellow Finn, Massa is still back in eighth, he'll need to do a lot better than that, especially with Hamilton effectively out of the running.
Race Control announces that it is investigating two incidents, involving Raikkonen, Massa and Hamilton. Raikkonen for the first corner, and Massa and Hamilton for the incident which saw the English driver spin.
Kovalainen goes quickest (19.258) as he sees Raikkonen closing in. Massa moves up to seventh.
One of the best battles is that involving Fisichella and Rosberg for thirteenth. The German, who scored a convincing second in Singapore, finally gets past the Italian and sets off after Barrichello.
On lap 16, Alonso goes quickest, but his time is immediately beaten by Kovalainen.
Disaster for McLaren, as Hamilton gets a drive-through, Kovalainen pulls to the side of the track, smoke pouring from the back of his car. Massa has also been given a drive-through.
At the end of lap 17, Kubica and Raikkonen both pit, handing the lead to Singapore winner Alonso. Hamilton comes in for his drive-through.
Alonso pits at the end of lap 18, handing the lead to local hero (sort of) to Trulli. Massa pits, but for fuel and tyres (soft) not for his drive-through. Next time around however, the Brazilian serves his penalty.
After 20 laps, Trulli leads Bourdais, Piquet, Vettel, Alonso, Kubica, Raikkonen and Webber.
The Renault crew advise Alonso that Kubica is running five laps longer on his second stint, they tell the Spaniard to push harder.
Trulli pits at the end of lap 21, giving the lead to Bourdais, one of several drivers who needs to secure a seat for 2009. His Toro Rosso teammate is running third, behind Piquet.
As Fisichella becomes the fifth retirement of the weekend, Vettel pits, staying on the harder tyre. He rejoins in eighth, just in front of Heidfeld, literally.
Rosberg passes Button to take to take tenth, as Bourdais pits, handing the lead to Piquet. With the Brazilian still to stop, this effectively means that Alonso is leading, ahead of Kubica and Raikkonen. After his two stops, Massa is thirteenth, 11.7s ahead of Hamilton.
"Get past him," Rosberg is told as he pursues Barrichello, "you're losing a lot of time!"
Stuck behind Button, Massa is losing ground to Hamilton who is now 10.5s behind. With the Drivers' Championship battle in limbo, all eyes are now on Raikkonen who can significantly add to Ferrari's tally today, especially following Kovalainen's retirement.
Piquet pits at the end of lap 28, handing the lead to his Renault teammate, just two weeks after the Spaniard's famous victory in Singapore. Elsewhere, Massa passes Button to take twelfth.
"Kubica is your main competitor," Alonso is told, as the Pole closes to within 7.8s of the Renault. Raikkonen is a further 4.6s down the road. The Spaniard takes 0.5s off his pursuers.
After 31 laps, Webber (fourth), Heidfeld (ninth), Rosberg, Barrichello and Button, are the only drivers that haven't stopped.
At the half-way point, it's: Alonso, Kubica, Raikkonen, Webber, Trulli, Piquet, Bourdais, Vettel, Heidfeld, Rosberg, Barrichello, Massa, Button, Hamilton and Nakajima.
Webber pits at the end of lap 34, as Hamilton passes Button for thirteenth. Massa is still over 6s behind Barrichello, lapping 0.6s quicker than his fellow Brazilian.
Nakajima makes his first regular pit stop at the end of lap 37, as Alonso extends his lead over Kubica to 11s. Raikkonen is 4.5s behind the Pole.
Button pits, leaving Heidfeld, Rosberg and Barrichello as the only drivers yet to stop. That said, the Brazilian stops next time around.
Alonso continues to set a blinding pace, taking up to 0.6s out of Kubica, who maintains a 5s gap over Raikkonen. Trulli is a further 5.9s behind the World Champion, ahead of Piquet, Bourdais and Vettel.
At the end of lap 41, Alonso posts a new fastest lap (19.101) as Heidfeld and Hamilton pit. Meanwhile, Massa passes Webber for tenth.
Rosberg pits, which promoted Massa to eighth, however, the Ferrari driver still has to make his second stop.
At the end of lap 43, Alonso pits for fuel, tyres (soft) and a quick change to the front wing.
Kubica complains about his car's balance, the Pole struggling to maintain his 4.4s advantage over Raikkonen. Understeer at the front and further grip problems at the rear.
He's woken up! Raikkonen posts a new fastest lap (19.076(, taking almost a second out of the Pole's lead. Alonso is now sixth, 22.1s behind the race leader.
Kubica pits at the end of lap 46, handing the lead to Raikkonen, who takes 1.2s off Alonso, who is chasing Bourdais. The Pole rejoins in seventh, ahead of Massa and behind Vettel.
On lap 48 the Ferrari crew gathers in the pitlane, as Massa goes quickest in the first sector. Raikkonen pits, rejoining just behind Kubica. Meanwhile, Massa posts a new fastest lap (19.014).
Trulli now leads, from Piquet, Bourdais, Alonso, Vettel, Kubica, Raikkonen and Massa, who posts another fastest lap (18.963).
Trulli and Bourdais both pit at the end of lap 50, handing the lead to Piquet, who now heads a Renault 1-2.
Almost a disaster for Massa, who, clearly having a red mist race, almost collects Bourdais as he leaves the pits. The Ferrari spins but is able to continue. Elsewhere, Raikkonen is right on the tail of Kubica, who still has a mathematical shot at the title.
Piquet pits at the end of lap 52, as Kubica holds off Raikkonen at the end of the main straight. The two continue battling, at one stage the Ferrari running wide, such is the Finn's determination to take as many points as possible. However, despite the failings of his car, grip-wise, Kubica holds off the Ferrari.
In all the excitement, we didn't notice that Massa has pitted, emerging in tenth.
The stewards announce that the Bourdais/Massa incident will be investigated after the race.
As Kubica and Raikkonen battle, Piquet closes in, eager to profit should it end in tears.
As Alonso extends his lead to 13s, Massa posts another fastest lap (18.426). Piquet enjoys a grandstand view of the fight for second. Trulli holds fifth, ahead of Bourdais, Vettel and Webber.
"You're one second quicker than Raikkonen," Piquet is told. "Let's see what you can do, let's see if you can overtake him".
Massa closes to within 1.8s of nick Heidfeld, the Brazilian the quickest man on track by a country mile.
On lap 60, Massa takes Heidfeld with ease, the Ferrari clearly miles faster than the BMW on the main straight. The Brazilian now sets off after Webber who is 8s up the road. However, since Webber is the last of the point scorers, the incentive for the Brazilian is clear.
A close up of Webber's front-left reveals that the tyre is almost devoid of rubber, never mind the silly green stripes. This might well aid Raikkonen.
With two laps remaining, Massa closes to within 0.9s of Webber, the end result seems inevitable. Then again, there is that little matter of the investigation into the Bourdais incident.
The Brazilian passes the Australian on the main straight, though he opted for the risky option as opposed to the easy route. The Ferrari driver makes full use of the pitlane in his determination to pass the Red Bull. Another investigation?
Sensing another famous victory, the Renault crew runs across the track to welcome Alonso, who allows Hamilton to un-lap himself.
Alonso takes the chequered flag, his second against-all-odds victory in as many weeks, a drive worthy of a World Champion. Surely, unless Kimi Raikkonen is going to have a change of heart, the Spaniard must remain with Renault for 2009, and end the silly speculation involving Honda.
"Better than Singapore," says Alonso, and who wouldn't agree with him. The night race result was fortuitous to a certain extent, whereas today was far more convincing, albeit the silliness involving Hamilton and the Ferraris.
A superb second from Robert Kubica leaves the Pole in third position in the championship fight, 12 points behind Hamilton, who, let us not forget, had a 17 point advantage heading to China last year.
Raikkonen's third place means that Ferrari re-takes the lead in the Constructors' Championship, the Italian outfit enjoying a 6 point advantage as it seeks to defend the title. On the day, the Finn did exactly what was needed, not much more, and, probably much to his own satisfaction, didn't have to put himself out unduly in support of his teammate.
Strong performances from Piquet and Bourdais, who might both have done enough to retain their seats for next season. Despite some flakiness this season, there is an overall impression that as these two gain experience they will improve, after all, you don't win four Champ Car titles by being so-so.
Jarno Trulli, like Sebastian Vettel, won't get the credit he's due today, mainly because we've come to expect such performances from these drivers. However, the truth is that both have done a remarkable job here today, where others haven't.
As far as Massa is concerned, much like Hamilton it was about damage limitation this afternoon. Should it all go wrong, title-wise, both drivers need look no further than today's performances.
Though the title is at stake, both drivers made pointless mistakes this afternoon, both having red mist moments than were to cost dear. While Hamilton has at least admitted to his, it remains to be seen whether the Brazilian will hold his hand up and admit he screwed up. Oh what we would pay to be a fly on the wall of either motorhome this afternoon as Hamilton and Massa tell their bosses what went wrong.
As it happens, Ferrari admitted they had to be aggressive, whereas McLaren insisted that it would not be taking unnecessary risks, trouble is, someone forgot to tell Lewis.
If there is any such nonsense next week, Hamilton and Massa could well pay the price, for Kubica is slowly and silently closing in, and unlike his rivals is not prone to over enthusiasm.
Today's race was enjoyable, certainly compared to some this season, however, the over riding feeling as we head to Shanghai, is not whether today's performances from the two main title contenders were worthy of their position in the classifications, but what might have been if Renault had been able to give Alonso a little more in the engine department. To paraphrase Oscar Wilde, to win one race is lucky, to win two, back-to-back, that is the mark of a good car… and a good driver.
While the back-to-back fixtures take a lot out of the drivers, team personnel and even the media, such as the crew at Pitpass, we're delighted that battle will be resumed as early as next week. This is one race we can hardly wait for.