Continuing my aged rock and pop song theme, please settle back, polish your reading glasses, and select a suitable beverage. It has been a time since I last stood on the soapbox this long (grabs glass of Australian Cab-Sav, gives brief ear fuss to cat, and blows dust off old soapbox).

The determined Welsh singer Bonnie Tyler belted out Holding out for a Hero in 1984. Co-written and produced by Jim Steinman, he of Meatloaf collaboration fame. This track is a curious soft, not-quite-hard, rock number. It is either 1980's cheese-rock at its worst or something of sentimental value. Pink Floyd, Yes or Genesis it surely is not. Lovers of Meatloaf, and howling karaoke rock numbers which are best screamed to maximum effect after one too many Fosters will approve.

Let me share the opening verse...

"Where have all the good men gone
And where are all the Gods?
Where's the streetwise Hercules
To fight the rising odds?
Isn't there a white knight upon a fiery steed?
Late at night, I toss and I turn
And I dream of what I need."

The Shakespearean delights continue in the chorus...

"I need a hero
I'm holding out for a hero 'til the end of the night
He's gotta be strong, and he's gotta be fast
And He's gotta be fresh from the fight
I need a hero
I'm holding out for a hero 'til the morning light
He's gotta be sure, and it's gotta be soon
And he's gotta be larger than life."

Now, take a breath, close your eyes (once you've finished reading this sentence) and imagine Lawrence Stroll first dreaming this, and then singing it to Adrian Newey during his "secret" factory visit. Off you go, I'll wait...

Back? Was that fun or what?

Lawrence was a sweet 25 year-old when Footloose hit the screens, and Bonnie sang her heart out holding out for a hero. I like to think Stroll went to watch the teen flick to relax between high energy (Hi-NRG? - Ed)) business deals. It would explain why years later the song possibly ran endlessly through his mind every time he saw Adrian in the paddock. The lines are too good a fit for Lawrence's desires...

Where have all the good men gone? Check.
Where's the streetwise Hercules to fight the rising odds? Check.
And I dream of what I need. Double Check!

Additionally the song states he's got to be fresh, strong, fast (especially fast), sure, and larger than life. So many green check ticks it is a green-out!

I've followed Lawrence's moves in F1 with fascination. Full disclaimer, I own and wear both Ralph Lauren and Tommy Hilfiger. Stroll drove the former into Europe and built the latter. The man is no fool. He made huge piles of cash as a result. Forbes state his current net worth as $3.9bn (US). Even including the net market value of the Pitpass cats, that's way more than the Pitpass empire is worth.

This year the F1 cost cap is $135m (US). Two amusing ways to view this. View one. Divide $3.9bn by $135m and one gets 28.9. So with no other inputs Stroll could burn his own money and run an F1 team for nearly 29 seasons. View two. The best "safe" investment returns in the western world right now are around 6.75% p.a. Investing $3.9bn at 6.75% will yield a touch over $263m a year in interest. Which is to say Mr. Stroll can run the team on $135m and still pocket $128m a year in earnings. Not a bad situation. I believe most of us working at Pitpass, much like our dear readership, could limp along on a modest $128m per annum. As an aside you can then see why drivers 'only' asking for a few tens of millions a year is met with a "Yeah, sure. Sign him."

Hence Mr. Stroll's statement that Adrian is a bargain at a mere $30m a year. Stroll is looking at the return to his empire in more Aston road cars sold, polished halo for the brand, and having a winning F1 team. A global brand desired by the ultra-wealthy. A team which generates yet more sponsor dollars. Meaning Mr. Stroll's last few billion can remain safely in the bank/stock market/gold bullion and not be wasted running his F1 dream.

He has been holding out for a hero. Now he has found him. Or so we all believe. Jim Steinman was also the driving force behind Meatloaf's "Like a bat out of hell I'll be gone when the morning comes!" While it is a fear for Stroll, and a reality for Christian, I doubt Adrian will fly off like a bat out of hell. Stock options might have a small impact on that view, but it is Adrian's extreme desire to win, and to prove his remarkable design capabilities that will make him stay. Sure money is nice, but after a certain point, just ask Mr. Stroll, you are very much not in it for the money. Like the old Rolls Royce declaration of power output you simply have "adequate", therefore the drive to achieve is about more than simple money.

Drag Aston from the mid-field to the podium, to World Championships. Make new history. Do what others claim you cannot. Adrian is excited and alive with the idea. He wants to prove himself, again.

"He's gotta be sure, and it's gotta be soon
And he's gotta be larger than life."

This is one of those electrifying rock moments where the lead singer and one of his guitarists (bass, rhythm or lead, pick your favourite) lean on one another back-to-back and form a huge "A" centre stage as they scream a shared line while limboing wider and lower... Not only will Lawrence be singing this to Adrian, but Adrian will be singing this to Stroll. Each needs faith in the other and what they deliver. Exciting, electrifying, but not without risk.

I've read the Aston Martin end of financial year annual report. Yup, right up there with To Kill a Mockingbird and The Lord of the Rings in terms of mighty literature. Well actually no. More aligned to a party political finance projection released prior to an election.

Some back story. When BMW purchased Rolls Royce they performed a market survey of existing customers to see what they considered competitors to a Rolls Royce. What was on the short list, and why did Rolls win? Turns out that the majority of new Roller buyers already owned a Mercedes S-class as a daily driver and also had a Ferrari or two in the garage. The Rolls was not competing with anything, it was an independent "I just want one" purchase. As such it has to be unique and expensive over all other factors. It had to be special and cost sensitivity was minimal. Cost being different to perceived value for money.

So Mr. Stroll in his latest shareholder release outlines his marketing strategy for Aston going forward. Target the Ultra High Net Worth Individuals (UHNWIs)! That's it. This group is defined as anyone with a net worth in excess of $30M. That's quite a lot! The Southern Pitpass cat decries such hoarding! Yet our global finance systems legally facilitates it. So just as the market for Super Yachts (anything over 50 metres long as a rough guide) has exploded in the last 25 years, so has the market for "Real Expensive Stuff".

Public figures state Aston sold 6,400 cars worldwide in FY2022, increasing 3% to 6,620 in FY2023. For comparison Toyota sold comfortably over 11 million cars in FY23. Meaning Mr Stroll sold 0.05% of the cars Toyota did. And he does not care.

I quote from the Aston Martin 2023 Annual Report:

"Sustainable long-term growth in demand for luxury goods globally as the world's Ultra High Net Worth Individual (UHNWI) population is expected to increase by 29% between 2022 and 2027."

That's from page 22. Then a few beautiful graphics and sentences later this:

"Opportunity to expand Aston Martin's brand presence and market share for ultra-luxury cars in both established and expanding regions across a broader demographic."

And...

"Growing demand for unique and bespoke personalised products amongst ultra-luxury consumers."

Both also from page 22. Stroll has learned the Rolls Royce lesson and is not interested in contesting market share with Audi, Porsche or Jaguar. He is chasing those clients that already own 50 metre yachts and at least a brace of limited release Ferraris.

They have the ready cash. They want impressive, exclusive and personalised. And with Aston Martin that's exactly what Stroll intends to deliver.

The UHNWIs want exclusive, impressive, personal, at what they consider good value. Consider the cost of the Red Bull RB17. Only fifty being built (exclusive). Around £5m, just short of ten million Aussie dollars each (impressive and makes it hard to get). Personal, Adrian will be hand delivering each one, and you can select any number of unique options. And it's not road legal! Track days only!

Much of a market? World-wide it is estimated that 211,275 UHNWIs existed in 2013. That expanded, as estimated by Credit Suisse, to 264,200 people worth more than $50m US by 2023. With the UHNWIs population (requiring only that modest $30m) now estimated at 419,699 people. That's a population increase of nearly 209,000 people, being a 98% population explosion in ten years! Yes dear reader, it is true that money makes money... The current global estimate for billionaires is 3,279 people (that's 0.00004% of the global population folks!). So still a touch more exclusive at the very top end. Of which approximately 800 live in China and the USA.

Given this, can Red Bull comfortably shift 50 five million pound handcrafted hyper-cars, personally delivered by Adrian Newey? Well yes. With a potential market of approximately 420,000 people they are all sold out. If only 10% give a flying side-pod about cars that's still 42,000 potential clients running to your door. Plenty of punters to squabble over a mere fifty cars...

The standard Aston road car range currently includes the Vantage (from $320,000 Aussie, or 163,000 pounds). The DBS (from $590,000 Aussie, around 300,000 pounds), and the DBX (from $388,000 Aussie, around 198,000 pounds). All prices before options are added. The current limited edition offering is the Valour, a touch over a million pounds, or two million Australian dollars. The personalisation is such that each is effectively a one-off. It's a tad faster than a Jaguar iPace, and slower than the most extreme Tesla. It seats two, is a manual, and has a totally non-electric supported 5.2L V12 twin-turbo. No one needs one. Yet there are plenty who want one.

Then we have the Valkyrie. Unlike the RB17 you can actually get one for the road! 150 are being built at approximately $3.5m US each. That's around $5.5M Aussie or £2.7m pounds. And they've all been sold. It's money in the bank. The "Pro" version at $4M US, with only 50 being produced, are currently being built, and are also sold out.

So assuming Mr. Stroll wishes to remain at least as exclusive as Ferrari he will be looking for around 10,000 vehicle sales per annum, plus the occasional monster such as the Valkyrie. Now he 'only' has a market of around 420,000 people for sure. Yet the entry-level Vantage is a mere £163,000 meaning it can be aspired to by people with far less than $30M US in the bank. Therefore his actual market will be considerably larger than 420,000.

Ignoring this wider market, 10,000 is only 2.4% of 420,000. Stroll only needs to have marketing success with 2.4% of the UHNWIs!

Is Adrian a bargain? Yes. Is a winning F1 team worth it for the halo-effect on Aston? Yes. Is Adrian the hero that Lawrence should have held out for? Yes, yes indeed!

Do billions and super-yachts and one-off cars make you more than human? Are the ultra-wealthy, ultra-human? No, just ask poor Mike Lynch and his daughter Hannah. Still so very tragically human. Yet this is the spectrum of purchasers the global economy generates. Where there is a bulging wallet there will soon be someone to lighten it for you. Be it a serving of hot chips on the way home from the pub, or adding a McLaren F1 road car to your beloved Ferrari F40. Or a new Aston. Or more especially, a limited, bespoke, Aston.

Would I bet against Adrian on track and Lawrence in the Boardroom? No! They are masters of their field, and still both at the top of their games. Yes one needs a touch of Lady Luck when it's a close call, but neither of them achieved what they have via luck. No. Super smarts, hard work, persistence, risk taking, flashes of genius... then a tiny sprinkle of luck.

Where now? They have a decade. Be challenging, possibly winning, championships within that timeframe and they will both prove once again that holding out for a hero is the smartest way to win. More to the point, Lawrence will once again prove he knows how to hold out for the right hero.

I need a hero
I'm holding out for a hero 'til the morning light
He's gotta be sure, and it's gotta be soon
And he's gotta be larger than life."

Lawrence surely has it as his top favourite on Spotify. Right now this is his song. And I believe Adrian is singing the same tune. Gentlemen! Get those 1980's giant hair-dos going and let's do this!

Max Noble

Learn more about Max and check out his previous features, here